One of the most notable absences from the start lists of WTCS Cagliari was that of the defending world champion, Flora Duffy.
After taking the decision to delay the start of her season to rest a lingering knee injury and prioritise the summer, Duffy did not race at WTCS Abu Dhabi. She was then originally on the start list for WTCS Yokohama but was swapped out in favour of her compatriot Erica Hawley.
Now with Duffy giving Cagliari a miss, she will have not raced at three of the season’s seven pre-Final races. That leaves her with Montreal, Hamburg, Sunderland plus the Paris Olympic Test Event at which to score points in a full quota of races. Prior the WTCS Final in Pontevedra, an athlete can have four scores to their name. Should Duffy arrive with only three, a fifth world title will essentially be rendered an impossibility.
Theoretically, then, it is still possible for her to win this season’s crown. To do so, she will need to be perfect at all races. Even then, with only one Olympic distance race remaining after Cagliari, Duffy’s road to the Final will offer fewer points than for those racing in Yokohama or Sardinia.
For instance the winner of either Yokohama or Cagliari will be 250 points better off than a Duffy win in Montreal or Sunderland (1000 points versus 750 points).
Duffy’s closest rival from last season, Georgia Taylor-Brown, will be racing at both Yokohama and Cagliari and so it is entirely possible that by the end of May she will have a 2000 point head start in the Series (which also does not factor in her 15th place in Abu Dhabi).
Alternatively, if Beth Potter continues her fine form in Cagliari, repeating her Abu Dhabi victory, she will have a 1750 point advantage over Duffy. Sophie Coldwell, too, could be a factor. After a silver medal in Abu Dhabi, she could produce another podium finish in Yokohama and insert herself as the Series leader.
Duffy will therefore be playing catch up until at least the Paris Test Event. With so many countries tying Olympic selection to the Test Event, it promises to be a fiercely contested race and Duffy risks losing points there too.
Should Duffy win all four of her races prior to Pontevedra, she can earn a maximum of 3375 points. At the time of writing, though, Taylor-Brown could arrive in Pontevedra with a maximum 3875 points.
Realistically, neither Duffy nor Taylor-Brown are sure bets to have perfect seasons going forward. However the point remains that Duffy now faces a points deficit for the rest of the year.
As a result, at this stage, the signs point to Duffy not defending her world title. Instead, she appears to be prioritising her Olympic defence next year.
In a way, this is similar to how Kristian Blummenfelt will not be targeting the WTCS crown this year. One crucial difference, though, is that Duffy has won the past two Series and has triumphed at her last three races in the WTCS. By contrast, Blummenfelt has not returned to the podium since stepping up to long distance triathlon and arguably of the two has the bigger challenge to get into Olympic winning shape.
Either way, the door seems to have been opened for someone else to win this year’s world title.
