Having looked at how the Olympic Games would look if the Mixed Team Relay and men’s race were to take place already, today we are looking at what the women’s field would look like.
Who would qualify?
As was the case in the relay, France would qualify two women’s slots as hosts. Just as with the men, in this simulation these slots are allocated by the current individual Olympic qualification rankings and Cassandre Beaugrand and Emma Lombardi would receive the French slots.
Next up would be Great Britain and their slots would go to Georgia Taylor-Brown and Beth Potter. After that, America is next in line and they would select Taylor Knibb and Taylor Spivey. Neither Britain nor America set a lot in store against the rankings in their Olympic Games selection policies. Nevertheless, the quartet named here are probably the favourites to be selected for the two countries.
Germany would pick Laura Lindemann and Lena Meißner, while Switzerland would take Julie Derron and Cathia Schaer to the Games. Natalie Van Coevorden and Jaz Hedgeland would receive the Australian slots.
New Zealand would pick Ainsley Thorpe and Eva Goodisson. Italy would nominate Verena Steinhauser and Bianca Seregni. Portugal would choose Melanie Santos and Maria Tomé.
The final two relay slots will be earned at the 2024 Mixed Team Relay Qualification event. Going by the remaining teams with eligible athletes (note that Denmark do not have enough eligible athletes to send a relay), the slots would go to Belgium and Norway.
As per the Olympic qualification rankings, Belgium would select Valerie Barthelemy and Jolien Vermeylen while Norway would take Lotte Miller and Solveig Løvseth.
As with the men’s race, two slots will be allocated to the Olympic Universality selection, leaving thirty-one slots to be filled individually.
Twenty-six of those thirty-one slots will be allocated via the individual Olympic qualification rankings. The current top-2 women in the rankings qualify via the relay, which means the 3rd ranked athlete, Flora Duffy, would receive the first individual place.
Factoring in the relay picks and how many athletes each country can take, the rest of the individual spots would be allocated as follows (each athlete is noted with their country and current Olympic qualification rank):
- Flora Duffy BER 3rd
- Miriam Casillas Garcia ESP 6th
- Sophie Coldwell GBR 9th
- Maya Kingma NED 11th
- Lisa Tertsch GER 14th
- Luisa Baptista BRA 15th
- Vittoria Lopes BRA 16th
- Yuko Takahashi JPN 18th
- Alberte Kjaer-Pedersen DEN 19th
- Emy Legault CAN 20th
- Leonie Periault FRA 21st
- Kirsten Kasper USA 22nd
- Lizeth Rueda Santos MEX 32nd
- Julia Hauser AUT 33rd
- Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal MEX 41st
- Jeanne Lehair LUX 42nd
- Lisa Perterer AUT 43rd
- Elizabeth Bravo ECU 46th
- Petra Kurikova CZE 49th
- Paulina Klimas POL 50th
- Zsanett Bragmayer HUN 51st
- Simone Ackermann RSA 52nd
- Terza Zimovjanova CZE 53rd
- Rachel Klamer NED 55th
- Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto COL 56th
- Anna Godoy Contreras ESP 57th
In comparison to the men, the women that qualify individually are a little better ranked. If the men’s slots were allocated today, 79th in the rankings would be enough to qualify whereas 57th is the cut-off for the women.
The final five slots will be allocated under the World Triathlon New Flag pick. That means the best ranked athlete from a country that has not already qualified in the above process will be picked. Where possible, World Triathlon try to keep it to one athlete per continent. Currently, the athletes that would be given slots are:
- Basmla Eslalamoney EGY (Africa)
- Leslie Amar Alvarez CUB (Americas)
- Ekaterina Shabalina KAZ (Asia)
- Xisca Tous ITU (Europe)
As was the case in the men’s simulation, Oceania does not currently have an eligible athlete so that slot is given to the next eligible qualifiers on the Olympic qualification rankings, regardless of continent.
- Amelie Kretz CAN 63rd
Who would be the favourites?
There are three favourites that stand out in this field. Flora Duffy, Georgia Taylor-Brown and Taylor Knibb. We say they are the favourites as they are perhaps the three athletes with the most capacity to shape the race.
For example, if the three of them breakaway on the swim or bike, it is improbable that anyone will be able to win from the chase pack. Anyone that is able to break away with them will be in for a great chance of winning an Olympic medal.
Whereas Duffy and Taylor-Brown can win in virtually any manner, Knibb perhaps would struggle to win in a foot race. However, her cycling is so hilariously overpowered at this point that half the field may not be able to keep up with her. Of anyone that would qualify in this simulation, Knibb is the one that would be likeliest to simply solo her way to victory at Paris.
There are a lot of strong athletes due to qualify, such as Beth Potter, Cassandre Beaugrand and Maya Kingma. However, the difference with them is that they only have one way in which they realistically can win the race. Potter and Beaugrand will likely rely on a running race whereas Kingma will need a breakaway. As such, it is hard to call them favourites in the same way we have for Duffy, Taylor-Brown and Knibb.
All things considered, a breakaway is highly likely in the women’s race. It could come in the swim where the likes of Duffy, Vittoria Lopes and Bianca Seregni will push the pace. Alternatively, it could come on the bike if the likes of Duffy, Knibb or Kingma drop the hammer.
It is hard to see the race developing into a running race. However, one key difference to the men’s race is that the favourites will not be concerned if a fast runner makes the breakaway. For instance, if Hayden Wilde or Alex Yee made the breakaway in the men’s race, the race would be turned on its head. In the women’s race, the likes of Duffy and Taylor-Brown would likely back themselves to still win even if Beaugrand, Potter or Leonie Periault made the front pack, such is their own running speed.
As a result, the race will probably have a furious tempo throughout with most of the field dropping away. As the field is whittled into a smaller and smaller bunch of contenders, the decisive move will probably come on the run. At that point, the race will be mental as much as it will be physical. Any number of factors, ranging from home French support to Duffy’s sense of legacy as she pursues a second Olympic gold, may weigh on different athletes. Whoever deals with the moment best will triumph on the day.
You can view the full simulation on female qualification below.
