With a little under 18 months until the Olympic Games kick off in Paris, it is inevitable that the world of triathlon will keep half an eye on who will qualify.
If the Games were to take place today, who would be racing?
We will start by looking at the Mixed Team Relay. The Mixed Relay receives the first slots that are allocated to qualifying countries. Using the World Triathlon Olympic qualification rankings, it is possible to simulate who would qualify. The current rankings will have significant implications for how countries and athletes prioritise different events across the 2023 season, particularly those that are on the bubble of qualifying.
So, going into 2023, let’s take a look at which countries would qualify a relay.
Who would qualify?
The first country that would qualify would be France. As the hosts of the Games, France will automatically have a relay making the first step fairly simple.
The next slot goes to the best (non-French) finisher from the 2022 World Mixed Relay Championships in Montreal. France won the race so the slot rolls down to the silver medallists that day: Great Britain.
The third relay slot will go to the best non-qualified finisher (so not France or Great Britain) at the 2023 World Mixed Relay Championships in Hamburg. After finishing third in Montreal, the United States are given this slot in the simulation.
After these picks, the six best relays in the World Triathlon Olympic Qualification Rankings are added. Again, if a country has already qualified, they are ignored and the slot rolls down to the next available country. As France, Great Britain and the United States are currently in the top-8 of the rankings and have qualified in the simulation, the slots roll through to the 9th best ranked country.
The countries that would qualify under this step are: Germany, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Italy and Portugal.
Finally, two slots are available to the best two finishers at the 2024 World Triathlon Mixed Team Relay Qualification Event. To borrow from the current rankings, the best non-qualified team is Belgium and we will assume they win the race.
The best ranked team after that, however, is Denmark.
Denmark are currently ranked 11th in the Olympic relay rankings. However, they face a problem. Even if they earned second place at the 2024 Qualification Event and secured the final qualifying slot, they would lose it. This is because they do not have two eligible men and women to race in Paris under the individual criteria. As a result, although Denmark are next in line, the slot would skip them.
The next best ranked team after Denmark is Norway and they receive the final slot in the simulation.
There is on more important point to add.
Brazil, Canada, Spain and Mexico will also be given relay slots. None of these countries have qualified a relay per se. Indeed, there are officially only eleven relays that can qualify via the relay route. However, they each are in line to qualify at least two men and two women individually which then creates a relay by default.
In total that gives fifteen relays at the Paris Olympics.
Who would be the favourites?
The first three teams that stand out are France, Great Britain and the USA. As the defending medallists from both Montreal and the Tokyo Olympics, they are the strongest relay teams.
France’s depth is probably unmatched so their challenge will be to pick the right relay on the day. Similarly, the US has a surfeit of talented women that could hold down a leg of their relay. The American men do not quite have the depth to match their women, however they can call upon some serious talent.
Of the trio, Great Britain might have the least depth. However they may conversely have the strongest individuals. Between Georgia Taylor-Brown and Alex Yee, Britain has a trump card for each gender. In 2023, both Yee and Taylor-Brown could conceivably become world champions and their consistency is arguably better than any of their rivals.
If Britain’s other two legs were as strong as they were in Tokyo, it will be an incredibly close battle.
Of the remaining challengers, Germany look the likeliest to break into the medals. They have as much depth on the women’s side as any leading country and won the relay at Leeds 2022. Gradually, their depth is translating into WTCS medals and it will be interesting to see if any of the German team can develop further this year.
Australia and New Zealand would also be dark horses. Both look one or two legs short of contending for a medal but could be in contention for much of the relay.
Unfortunately, we may not see a fully-powered battle between all the teams until Paris so long as the Mixed Relay remains an add-on to WTCS weekends. Moreover, given the athletes seldom race over the Super Sprint distance, it will be hard to fully assess form. As a result, it will be a challenge to accurately predict how the relay will pan out.
While there will be hints over the coming year or so to predict what will happen, the relay at Paris may just be one of the hardest races to call at the Olympic Games.
