Yesterday we looked at the teams that would qualify in the Mixed Team Relay if the Paris Olympics were to take place today. Due to the nature of the qualifying system for the Olympic Games, the relay qualifications inform the qualifiers for the individual.
As a result, we cannot simply look at the Olympic qualification rankings and assume the best ranked men will qualify.
Given this, what would the start list look like if the men’s Olympic slots were allocated today?
Who would qualify?
To start with, we would have to guess who would take the slots allocated under the provisions of the relay.
This is instantly complicated by the fact that the slots do not qualify specific athletes, but rather they qualify countries. As a result, national selection policies come into play, the outcomes of which are not always easy to predict.
To allocate the slots for the relays qualified under the simulation, we will simply allocate the slot to the best ranked athletes in the current Olympic qualification rankings. You can also view how the countries received relay slots in our previous article.
As hosts, France qualify two men’s slots which would go to Leo Bergere and Vincent Luis. As the best ranked team from the World Mixed Relay Championships in 2022, Great Britain come next and their slots would go to Alex Yee and Jonathan Brownlee. This pairing is actually what we predicted anyway having reviewed the British Olympic Games selection policy.
Next would be the Americans, who would qualify Matthew McElroy and Seth Rider. Leaving Morgan Pearson out right now seems like a strange move, but as this is based on current rankings he would not make the cut.
Germany would take Lasse Luhrs and Jonas Schomburg, while Switzerland would be represented by Sylvain Fridelance and Max Studer. The Australian men would be Matthew Hauser and Luke Willian. New Zealand would pick Hayden Wilde and Taylor Reid. Italy would take Michele Sarzilla and Gianluca Pozzatti, and Joao Silva and Vasco Vilaca would travel for Portugal.
Next, two ranked teams from the 2024 Mixed Team Relay Qualification event would be added. The first simulated team here would be Belgium who would select Jelle Geens and Noah Servais.
As mentioned in the relay simulation, Denmark do not have two eligible men and women so, although they are next in line, the slot would instead go to Norway. Kristian Blummenfelt and Vetle Bergsvik Thorn would currently take the two Norwegian slots.
That is twenty-two of the fifty-five available slots allocated. A further two slots will be Olympic Universality places, so that leaves thirty-one to fill.
Twenty-six of those thirty-one slots will be allocated via the individual Olympic qualification rankings.
If we look at the Olympic qualification rankings as they currently stand, the top-6 men would all qualify via the relay. Manoel Messias, at 7th in the Olympic rankings, would therefore be the first man to qualify individually.
Antonio Serrat Seoane, in 8th place, would qualify individually. Matthew McElroy is next in the rankings in 9th. However, he is the highest ranked man for the Americans and, as the USA have qualified a relay in this scenario, he is already qualified. As a result, the slot skips ahead to the next athlete. The next eligible athlete is Jawad Abdelmoula of Morocco, he is currently ranked 11th.
The full list of individual qualifiers, their nationality and their current Olympic qualification ranking is as follows:
- Manoel Messias BRA 7th
- Antonio Serrat Seoane ESP 8th
- Jawad Abdelmoula MAR 11th
- Csongor Lehmann HUN 13th
- Roberto Sanchez Mantecon ESP 15th
- Kenji Nener JPN 18th
- Tom Richard FRA 20th
- Shachar Sagiv ISR 21st
- Sergio Baxter Cabrera ESP 22nd
- Mark Devay HUN 23rd
- Miguel Hidalgo BRA 28th
- Joao Pereira POR 29th
- Diego Moya CHI 33rd
- Alois Knabl AUT 39th
- Takumi Hojo JPN 41st
- Richard Murray NED 42nd
- Aram Michell Penaflor Moysen MEX 48th
- Charles Paquet CAN 51st
- Rostislav Pevtsov AZE 54th
- Jamie Riddle RSA 56th
- Rodrigo Gonzalez MEX 57th
- Leon Pauger AUT 58th
- Jeremy Briand CAN 70th
- Gregor Payet LUX 71st
- Henri Schoeman RSA 78th
- Andreas Carlsson SWE 79th
Finally, the last five slots will go under the World Triathlon New Flag pick. That means the best ranked athlete from a country that has not already qualified in the above process will be picked. Where possible, World Triathlon try to keep it to one per continent. At this stage, the New Flag slots would go to:
- Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa ECU (Americas)
- Jason Tai Long Ng HKG (Asia)
- Radim Grebik POL (Europe)
Currently Oceania and Africa, do not have an eligible athlete so those two slots go to the next eligible qualifiers on the Olympic qualification rankings, regardless of continent. The recipients of the slots would be:
- Emil Holm DEN 83rd
- Felix Duchampt ROU 84th
Who would be the favourites?
One thing that stands out is the number of talented athletes that will be left at home. There is a case to be made that the Olympics are not as deep as a WTCS race simply as a consequence of restricting how many athletes a country can take to the Games.
It should also be noted that not all the athletes will be picked according to the Olympic rankings. We have already looked at the selection policies of Britain, Spain, America and New Zealand. Britain and America do not really go by the rankings in their selection policies so the names listed above are liable to change.
Using the above simulation, though, we would expect the likes of Leo Bergere, Vincent Luis, Alex Yee, Hayden Wilde, Kristian Blummenfelt and Jelle Geens to form a small group of favourites.
How would the race pan out if the above start list was the actual Olympic Games field?
With the likes of Mark Devay, Henri Schoeman, Vincent Luis and Jamie Riddle in the field, the pace will very likely be high in the swim. As a result, a breakaway could be expected early on in the bike. Indeed, the early stages of the race would likely resemble the 2022 WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi. The likes of Yee, Wilde, Geens and Blummenfelt would probably be in the main pack. Each of those three men would also have a team-mate that could assist them if needed. Yee would have a particularly strong helping hand if Jonathan Brownlee tailored his race to assist him.
One thing that also stands out is the absence of a couple of strong cyclists, such as Jumpei Furuya and Gustav Iden. That would limit the ability of the chase to reel in the front pack.
On balance, if the swim is as aggressive as expected in Paris, there should be a big enough front pack to withstand any chase.
Ultimately, then, it would come down to which of the big names could make the front pack and how the chase responds. If Vincent Luis or Leo Bergere make the front pack (or both do), odds are France will celebrate a home Olympic gold in 2024. However, if someone like Hayden Wilde slips into that front group, the complexion of the race changes.
With the character of the race so up in the air, it is hard to say who actually has the best chance. On paper a breakaway favours Bergere and a running race favours Yee, but there are so many possibilities in between.
You can view the exact breakdown of how the spots are allocated in the below document.
