With the Olympics Games half a year away, we can examine which individuals would race in Paris if the qualifying window ended now. As with the forecasted men’s start list at the Olympics, much of the women’s field is determined by the qualifiers for the Mixed Team Relay.
While the individual selections by each national federation all still to be finalised for the most part, many of those that are projected to make the cut will likely claim the slots. In some cases, an athlete may earn a slot for their country only for it to be awarded to someone else. Generally, though, this is not overly common.
Who would qualify?
France would qualify two women’s slots as hosts. As with the men’s simulation, the slots are allocated here on the basis of the current individual Olympic qualification rankings. Cassandre Beaugrand and Emma Lombardi would therefore receive the French slots.
The next team would be Britain and their slots would go to Beth Potter and Georgia Taylor-Brown; notably, the former hit Britain’s stringent Olympic qualification criteria to book an early place on the team. The final confirmed places have been taken by Germany. The two slots would go to Lisa Tertsch and Laura Lindemann. As it happens, both have already been selected for the Olympics.
Six countries are then in line to qualify through their positions in the Olympic Mixed Team Relay rankings. New Zealand would be led by a combination of Ainsley Thorpe Nicole Van Der Kaay. Switzerland would call upon Julie Derron and Cathia Schär while America would have a double Taylor act of Spivey and Knibb.
Natalia Van Coevodern and Jaz Hedgeland would take their places on the Australian team while Spain would send Miriam Casillas Garcia and Noelia Juan. Rounding out the relay qualifiers at this stage would be Norway who would plump for Solveig Løvseth and Lotte Miller.
Finally, two relay slots will be available at the Mixed Team Relay Olympic Qualification Event in Huatulco. If we assume the top non-qualified teams (Italy and Belgium) succeed there, the teams would be made up by Verena Steinhauser and Bianca Seregni, in the former case, and Jolien Vermeylen and Claire Michel, in the latter case.
From there, individual qualification comes into play. Like the men’s event, two slots will be allocated to the Olympic Universality selection, leaving thirty-one of the fifty-five female starting places to be filled.
Twenty-six of those thirty-one slots will be allocated via the individual Olympic qualification rankings. The current top-6 women in the rankings are expecgted to qualify via the relay. Sophie Coldwell, 7th in the Olympic rankings, would thus be the first eligible woman to earn individual qualification.
Factoring in the relay picks and how many athletes each country can take, the rest of the individual spots would be allocated as follows (each athlete is noted with their country and current Olympic qualification rank):
- Sophie Coldwell GBR 7th
- Jeanne Lehair LUX 8th
- Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal MEX 11th
- Nina Eim GER 12th
- Summer Rappaport USA 13th
- Yuko Takahashi JPN 19th
- Rachel Klamer NED 22nd
- Leonie Periault FRA 25th
- Maya Kingma NED 26th
- Vittoria Lopes BRA 27th
- Flora Duffy BER 29th
- Lizeth Rueda Santos MEX 34th
- Alberte Kjaer-Pedersen DEN 36th
- Djenyfer Arnold BRA 37th
- Emy Legault CAN 38th
- Zsanett Kuttor-Bragmayer HUN 42nd
- Julia Hauser AUT 43rd
- Petra Kurikova CZE 50th
- Lisa Perterer AUT 54th
- Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto COL 55th
- Xinyu Lin CHN 57th
- Dominika Jamnicky CAN 58th
- Elizabeth Bravo ECU 59th
- Sinem Francisca Tous Servera 62nd
- Erica Hawley BER 65th
- Terza Zimovjanova CZE 66th
Based on the above, Britain, France, Germany and America would be the countries to claim three Olympic slots. This is because they have three or more athletes in the top-30 of the Olympic rankings.
The last five places would then be allocated using the New Flag procedure. In this step, the world rankings take precedence over the Olympic rankings and the goal is to include athletes from a country that has not already qualified in Paris.
For Africa, Shanae Williams (South Africa, 71st in the world) would claim the slot. Unlike the men’s projected qualifiers in which two South African men are in line to qualify, no South African women are slated to qualify individually as things stand which frees up the New Flag.
As was the case with the Tokyo Olympics, Romina Biagioli (Argentina, 65th) is projected to take the Americas New Flag place. For Asia, Ekaterina Shabalina (Kazakhstan, 50th) will be the recipient of the New Flag. The European New Flag is currently due to be claimed by Ivana Kuriackova (Slovakia, 57th). Unlike the men’s forecasted qualifiers, Oceania has a potential New Flag athlete through Manami Iijima (Guam, 157th).
Who would be the favourites?
Tantalisingly, all of the WTCS gold medallists since the start of 2021 are projected to qualify for Paris; this is something the men’s field cannot have since the French team alone have four gold medallists.
Beth Potter, the 2023 world champion, Cassandre Beaugrand, Sophie Coldwell and Georgia Taylor-Brown all won WTCS races last year and would be at the forefront of the field. Likewise, Flora Duffy, the 2022 world champion, would be in the mix. Duffy has not raced since her triumph in Abu Dhabi in November 2022 but will make the Olympic cut. Looking back to 2021, Taylor Knibb and Maya Kingma would also be in the mix.
A couple of factors will have to be considered. Only fifty-five athletes will start. However, sixty-five women started at the Paris Test Event. As a result, a considerably different race could unfold at the real thing. One of the key drivers of this different race dynamic will be that fewer women will be available to help various packs come together.
There will also be missing strength in the field. At this stage, WTCS medallists from Britain, America and Germany are guaranteed to miss out, slimming the field from what it could have been.
Whereas a large group came together on the bike at the Test Event, it would be no surprise to see an elite breakaway, likely mainly consisting of WTCS gold medallists, moving clear of the field at the Games. Such a group would have a great chance of staying clear of the main pack.
Not only will there be fewer women to chase them down, but there will realistically be less firepower (measured in terms of WTCS medals) to bring them back. Whoever makes the select front pack in Paris will therefore be in a position to fight for an Olympic medal. Those that miss the group will probably miss out.
A scenario of a large bike pack leading into a running race could still unfold. However, seeing as all of the current WTCS gold medallists would be more than comfortable in a breakaway, it is unlikely that any would choose this as their primary strategy as there is a risk of being out-run on the day.
The home favourite, Beaugrand, might be the least thrilled with a breakaway yet she is possibly the fastest runner so the rest would want to break clear from her anyway. Equally, Potter out-ran Beaugrand at the Test Event and will be another threat the others will want to drop.
Should any kind of breakaway materialise, then, the race to Olympic gold could do in any number of directions.
