In just over half a year the 2024 Paris Olympic Games will begin. In the realm of triathlon, athletes have a final four month stretch until late May in which Olympic qualification will be decided.
With not long left to go, then, this article will cast an eye over which countries are in a position to qualify, starting with the Mixed Team Relay. The Mixed Relay takes the first priority in the allocation of Olympic places in triathlon. It is also perhaps the easiest way to guarantee four athletes from a single country make it to the Games.
The current state of play will therefore have significant implications for how countries and athletes prioritise certain events in the upcoming season. In particular, plenty will be set in store against the Mixed Team Relay Olympic Qualification Event in Huatulco.
Who would qualify?
Taking the first relay slots is none other than the host country, France. With the Olympics being in their backyard, the French team have been guaranteed two male and two female slots since the first day of the qualification window.
The next relay slot was assigned to the best (non-French) finisher at the 2022 Mixed Team Relay World Championships in Montreal. As France won the race, the slot rolled down to the silver medallists that day: Great Britain. The same procedure was utilised at the 2023 Mixed Team Relay World Championships in Hamburg. The winners, Germany, secured the final automatic relay place at the Games.
Thereafter, the six best relays in the World Triathlon Olympic Qualification Rankings are added as qualifiers. Any country that has already qualified is ignored and the slot rolls down to the next available team. As France, Great Britain and the Germany are currently in the top-3 of the Olympic relay rankings, all can be overlooked in this step. The six qualifying countries are thus ranked between 4th and 9th.
The countries that would qualify under this step are: New Zealand, Switzerland, United States, Australia, Spain and Norway.
As things stand, Norway hold a slender lead over Italy while the likes of Belgium, Portugal and Hungary are also in close pursuit.
Finally, two relay slots are available to the best two finishers at the 2024 Mixed Team Relay Olympic Qualification Event. To borrow from the current rankings, the best non-qualified teams are Italy and Belgium. We will therefore assume in this simulation that they will triumph in Huatulco, although it would be unwise to discount Portugal or Hungary.
There is on further key aspect to note.
Austria, Brazil, Canada and Mexico will also be given relay slots at the Games despite having not actually qualified a relay. This is because each are in line to qualify at least two men and two women individually to the Olympics.
Whereas there are officially only eleven teams that can qualify via the relay route, in reality fifteen relays are due to start as things stand.
Who would be the favourites?
As the defending world champions, Germany are an obvious place to look. The women’s team has already been filled while the two of the three men’s team have been selected. As things stand, Germany can choose between four WTCS medallists and a World Cup winner (with another potential World Cup winner or World Cup medallist to be added). They therefore have an enviable cast of talent and a track record of performing strongly in the relay since 2021. In the equivalent update last year, we flagged that Germany won the Mixed Team Relay in Leeds in 2022.
However, France did not race at the World Championships in Hamburg last summer while Britain had an experimental line-up. Both will therefore be major threats. Indeed, France’s team may consist entirely of athletes that made the overall 2023 WTCS podium (Coninx, Bergere, Beaugrand, Lombardi). This, however, will depend on the final team selection. Further options appear in the guise of WTCS medallist Leonie Periault, WTCS race winner Pierre Le Corre and former world champion Vincent Luis.
Britain can likewise call upon much of its gold medal winning relay from the Tokyo Olympics. Alex Yee has already made the team while world champion Beth Potter will replace Jess Learmonth’s leg. Georgia Taylor-Brown could return to the relay while a question mark hangs over Jonathan Brownlee’s hopes. The question mark over the second British male slot right now possibly puts Britain a tad behind an overpowered home French team and a dialled-in German team.
However, much is in store against Olympic gold in the British sporting model so expect the team to drastically out-perform its recent standards.
At the same time, Germany won the Paris Test Event relay, besting Britain and France at the last. Equally, the race was a duathlon due to water quality so may have limited lessons to share.
France led at the start of the final leg in Paris – Lombardi was alone out in front – but were caught by a chase pack containing Germany, Britain and Belgium. Britain took the silver medal while Lombardi was overtaken by a heroic anchor leg from Claire Michel. Perhaps Belgium will spring another shock in Paris.
Looking back to 2022, France were the relay world champions while Britain claimed silver. America took the bronze medal in Montreal. In all likelihood, America will field a Paris relay consisting entirely of WTCS medallists. Taylor Knibb and Morgan Pearson have already qualified – and aided the American relay to silver in Tokyo – while the likes of Matthew McElroy, Taylor Spivey and more could be in contention. Might Katie Zaferes return for another Olympic relay medal or will 2016 Olympic champion Gwen Jorgensen get her shot?
With the WTCS strength of the American team, they will be hard to overlook. As a result, it can be said that there are four main front-runners for relay gold at the Paris Olympics.
Elsewhere, New Zealand lead the way among the countries yet to have qualified and have a consistent unit. The were the runners-up Hamburg and finished 4th in Montreal in 2022. As such, they have been consistent at the World Championship level. Hayden Wilde will be pivotal to their hopes while another WTCS medallist, Nicole Van Der Kaay will probably be required to shoulder plenty of responsibility.
On balance, New Zealand feel like the likeliest team to upset one of the four favourites, even if Belgium have proven their abilities as Parisian medal pick-pockets.
So much can change at any one moment in the relay. While Lombardi lost a lead in Paris, Laura Lindemann pulled a superb solo leg out of the bag to lock in Germany’s win in Hamburg. On the day itself, almost anything can happen.
Fifteen teams would therefore line up on the pontoon if qualifying was locked in today and all would fancy their chances. All told, the relay could therefore be the hardest race to predict in Paris.
