Portugal has one of the most interesting selection policies for the 2024 Olympic Games.
The stated aim is to prioritise the Mixed Team Relay. Portugal did not qualify a relay in Tokyo so the goal is to send a team for the first time. As a result, the relay criteria come before the individual in the selection policy.
The Portuguese Federation also hopes to earn a third male slot. The policy notes that a third male slot is an ambitious goal, but also that it is within reach.
How will the athletes be picked?
If the Mixed Team Relay qualifies
The Mixed Relay is the key to the entire Portuguese selection.
In July, the World Mixed Team Relay Championships in Hamburg represent the last chance for a country to earn direct qualification to the Olympic Games. Thereafter, the Mixed Team Relay rankings will primarily determine the qualification of teams. (There will be a one-off qualification race after the slots are allocated via the rankings, but that only applies to teams not qualified at the end of the qualification period).
If a team earns Portugal direct qualification to the Olympics in Hamburg, the four athletes that raced in Hamburg will go to the Games.
If the team does not qualify in Hamburg and instead do so via the relay rankings, new criteria will apply.
Any Portuguese team that achieves a top-3 at a WTCS relay in the qualification period will earn the slots for the quartet in the medal-winning relay. If two teams manage this, the one with the higher finish will be taken.
If no Portuguese relay earns a top-3 finish, the following priorities will be applied to fill the relay at the Games.
First, the top ranked man and woman in the Olympic rankings will be taken. Next, the final 2023 WTCS rankings will be considered and then the third consideration will be the winner of a 2024 WTCS race within the qualification period. The final priority is covered by discretionary selection.
In the event Portugal qualify a third slot (male or female), the individual Olympic qualification ranking will be used to allocate that slot.
If the Mixed Team Relay does not qualify
In the event a relay does not qualify, athletes will be selected for the individual event using the following criteria.
The first vacancy will go to the first male and female athletes in the Olympic qualification rankings.
The second vacancy will go to the best finisher (male and female) in the overall 2023 WTCS as long as the athlete is in the top-3. That is quite a difficult ask. If no athlete finishes in the top-3 of the final WTCS standings, the second vacancy rolls down to any male and female winners of a 2024 WTCS race within the qualification period.
If no Portuguese athlete wins a WTCS race in 2024, the second vacancy rolls down again and goes to the second ranked man and woman in the Olympic rankings.
The third slot (which Portugal are hoping to secure on the men’s side) will then be decided at the discretion of the federation.
One thing that stands out is how limited the discretionary aspects are. There are very clear criteria. At the same time, as the relay is the most important factor, getting selected to Portugal’s relays this year will be crucial to any athlete’s hopes and that itself often requires a dose of selectorial discretion.
Who does the policy favour
Let’s start with the relay. Any Portuguese relay that medals at a WTCS level event before May 2024 essentially guarantees four athletes their selection.
Last season, Portugal finished 8th in the relay in both Leeds and Montreal. Their margin behind the bronze medallists in each were 1 min 32 seconds in Leeds and 1 min 48 seconds in Montreal. At both events, Portugal used the same team: Ricardo Batista, Melanie Santos, Joao Silva and Maria Tomé.
On recent form, then, the Portuguese relay is likelier to qualify via the rankings than by medalling.
On the women’s side, Santos and Tomé are the only Portuguese women in the top-150 of the Olympic qualification rankings. Santos sits in 60th while Tomé is 92nd. They will therefore almost certainly make up the women’s picks.
Right now, Santos is just outside of qualifying for the Games individually so both she and Tomé will benefit from the relay qualifying.
The situation is a little trickier on the men’s side.
Joao Silva is 10th in the Olympic rankings. Vasco Vilaca is 17th, Joao Pereira is 29th and Ricardo Batista is 55th. In the absence of any of that quartet finishing in the top-3 of the WTCS this year or winning a race next year, they will need to be among the top-2 ranked Portuguese athletes to earn selection.
That puts Silva is in the box seat. Vilaca, though, is also in a good place.
Way too early team predictions
As things stand, Portugal is in line to qualify a relay through the rankings. That means two men and two women will need to be picked.
We don’t think Portugal will medal in a relay as the gap to the medals in 2022 was a little too big. As a result, we think the slots will be allocated in the order set out above, using the Olympic rankings as the first criterion and so on.
Santos and Tomé will go for the women. They have a comfortable to gap to the next Portuguese athletes and have been core components of the relay in recent times.
Predicting the men is a little harder. To compound things, we think Portugal will qualify three men for Paris.
We think Vilaca will sneak ahead of Silva in the Olympic rankings. He is young and improving and currently has one fewer race than Silva which is part of the reason he is behind in the rankings.
We also think Batista will earn selection. Born in 2000, he is also improving and could have a breakout year. There is a very good chance he will break into the top-30 of the Olympic rankings this year on the back of a big WTCS season.
Silva, though, has been a trusted member of the relay and was consistent in the WTCS in 2022. We think he will be the third man on the list
That means Pereira would miss out. He is the oldest of the four men, however he has proven himself time and time again so could easily prove us wrong.
You can read the full policy here.
