It have often been the case that after a home Olympics many countries have struggled to replicate their performances at the subsequent Games.
With such a close turnaround between the Tokyo and Paris Olympics, Japan will be hoping to buck that trend across all sports. In the triathlon events at the Tokyo Games, Japan was led by Kenji Nener (who finished 14th), Yuko Takahashi (who finished 18th) and a Mixed Team Relay that finished 13th.
One of the vital parts of having an even better Games in Paris will be selection. Particularly on the men’s side, Japan has a number of contenders from which to choose.
How will the athletes be picked?
The first priority in the Japanese selection will go to the highest ranked athlete inside the top-20 of the individual Olympic qualification rankings at the end of May in 2024.
The next available slot can be earned with a top-8 finish at one of the following three events: the Paris Olympic Test Event in August, the WTCS Final in Pontevedra in September or WTCS Yokohama in 2024.
Note, a top-8 at Paris or Pontevedra will be given priority ahead of a top-8 in Yokohama next year.
Moreover if an athlete finishes within 30 seconds of 8th place in Paris or Pontevedra, they can still earn selection with that performance. Although, that will depend on how many spots are available. If the best finisher in Paris is 10th, for example, 20 seconds behind 8th place, then they will probably be picked. However, if an athlete finishes in 10th but another Japanese athlete finishes 4th, the athlete inside the top-8 will have priority.
Finally if any slots remain at the end of the Qualification period in May 2024, the places will be allocated using the individual Olympic rankings.
Who does the policy favour
To start with the first priority, both Kenji Nener and Yuko Takahashi sit inside the top-20 of the Olympic rankings at this point. Nener is ranked 18th while Takahashi lies exactly on the cut-off line in 20th.
Both are experienced athletes and have spent much of the past couple of seasons inside the top-20 at WTCS races. As such they can be quietly confident of maintaining or even improving their ranking.
In addition both Nener and Takahashi have good chances of taking a top-8 finish at Paris or Pontevedra (or being within 30 seconds of 8th). Both have WTCS top-10 finishes to their names, although Nener has not yet managed it over the Olympic distance.
Of any Japanese triathletes, Nener and Takahashi are in pole position to qualify based on the policy.
Thereafter, it will likely take one good race from an athlete to join them in Paris.
Way too early team predictions
As Japan’s best performers at the past Olympics, it would be a surprise to see Nener and Takahashi miss out.
Based on the current projections for Olympic qualification, that leaves one male and one female slot to allocate (although the second female slot is in a precarious position).
On the men’s side, the Japanese team has a lot of depth with numerous men capable of beating one another. Ren Sato is the best ranked man after Nener in 44th. Close behind, though, is Takumi Hojo in 47th. Jumpei Furuya waits in 50th with Makoto Odukura ranked 59th and Aoba Yasumatsu a little further behind in 65th.
Any of those five men could join Nener in Paris; it will only take one big performance.
Last season, Furuya showed what a lethal cyclist he is at WTCS Cagliari, WTCS Bermuda and WTCS Abu Dhabi. Cagliari stood out in particular as he was able to break away from the main pack on the bike. While he was eventually caught on the run, the tactic could work well for him at one of the selection races.
Meanwhile, Hojo had very good races Bermuda and at the World Cup in Miyazaki, finishing 15th and 5th at each. On balance Hojo might be the best runner of the Japanese men so if Paris or Pontevedra come down to the third discipline, he may have the best shot.
Yet Sato is the reigning Asian champion. Over the years he has shown himself to be an astute racer and it is hard to see him slipping behind.
An intriguing situation could also develop if none of the men attain the requisite finish at one of the three qualification races. That would make the Olympic rankings the most important factor which could result in a mad dash for points towards the end of the period.
The women’s side is not quite as deep which makes Takahashi the overwhelming favourite to make the team.
Hiraku Fukuoka is ranked 83rd, while Sarika Nakayama sits in 90th. With the relay currently not in position to qualify, one of them will need a run of good form to earn their slot individually. As it stands, Japan is only in line to qualify one woman. For either Fukuoka or Nakajima to qualify they would realistically need to get into the top-60 of the rankings.
As the more experienced athlete of the two, Fukuoka may have the better chance of doing this.
As a result, our way too early prediction is that the team will be Nener, Hojo, Takahashi and Fukuoka. With so much racing left, though, the team could look completely different in twelve months.
View the full Japanese policy here.
