With a lot of young talent coming through, Italy could be a sleeping giant on the world stage in triathlon.
In the here and now, though, the Italian team is already burgeoning with talent. The race to make the Olympic team in Paris will therefore be fierce. Despite a 4th place in Leeds last year, it also seems like we have not yet seen the full extent of what an Italian Mixed Team Relay is capable of. Expect that to change this year as the team pushes to lock up its Olympic slots.
How will the athletes qualify?
An athlete will be automatically nominated for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games if they meet one or more of the following requirements.
The first is to be in the top-8 of the individual Olympic rankings as of 27 May 2024. Alternatively, an athlete may secure automatic nomination should they finish in the top-8 at either the Paris Test Event or the WTCS Final in Pontevedra this year. As almost every country has that same clause in its selection policy, expect Paris and Pontevedra to be absolute pandemonium,
Italian athletes will have another path to automatic nomination.
A top-3 individual finish in one of the following events will also be sufficient. It could come at this year’s European Games in Poland or at any Olympic distance WTCS race in 2023 or 2024 so long as it comes before the May cut-off for qualifying.
Should an athlete earn automatic nomination with a result this year, they will have to achieve a secondary 2024 result to prove that are ready to go to the Games. This secondary 2024 result can either be a WTCS top-16 or a World Cup top-3 before the end of the qualifying period.
Note that the selection committee reserves the right to ignore any results that achieve the above criteria in the event that the results were obtained in competitions significantly affected by environmental conditions and/or exceptional circumstances involving substantial changes to the competition format.
Moreover in the event that there are more direct nominations than the available quotas, the selection committee shall enjoy absolute discretion to nominate the athletes who have the best chance of achieving a better result at the Olympic Games (over both the individual and Mixed Team Relay).
If there are any slots available after the automatic nominations have been filled, the rest of the team will be selected at the complete discretion of the selection committee.
Among the factors that the committee will consider are performances during 2023-2024 across the WTCS, World Cups, the Olympic Test, Mixed Team Relays and Continental Championships. Aptitude for the Mixed Team Relay will also be considered.
Then there are a series of less tangible measurements including an athlete’s history, future, injuries, as well as subjective measures including an athlete’s ability under pressure.
An athlete may be selected purely to race the relay in Paris. The exact composition of the Olympic relay will be decided after the individual races in Paris.
Who does the policy favour
Michele Sarzilla is the front-runner in the men’s field as he is currently ranked 16th in the individual Olympic rankings. With a big year, he could propel himself into the top-8 and secure automatic nomination.
Similarly Gianluca Pozzatti sits 26th in the rankings. After winning the Miyazaki World Cup in October, he is an athlete on the rise and could also jump into the top-8. Both Sarzilla and Pozzatti finished in the top-8 at WTCS Cagliari so they have proven they have what it takes to hit the condition of a top-8 in Paris or Pontevedra.
Both will be extremely competitive races but both men have a great shot.
On the women’s side, Verena Steinhauser is even closer to the top-8 in the Olympic rankings. As of today she is 12th. Meanwhile, Bianca Seregni is ranked 31st but rising fast. Furthermore Seregni has not yet used her full allocation of race results in the First Period so could jump quite a few places by the end of May.
The automatic nomination criteria for Italy are quite a challenge and being 8th in the rankings (or in Paris or Pontevedra) will be tough. As such, the policy does not directly favour anyone. However there are certainly a coupe of athletes with a healthy head start.
Way too early team predictions
At this stage, it seems Italy will likely qualify two men for the Paris Olympics. That would put Sarzilla and Pozzatti in the box seats to qualify.
Alessio Crociani and Nicolò Strada are very talented youngsters and are improving rapidly. However, it may be the case that Paris just comes a little too early for them.
Both Sarzilla and Pozzatti have the recent results to make them the favourites to hit the automatic nomination criteria. Even if they don’t, on balance they might be the best bets for discretionary selections. Strada has been a useful part of the Italian Mixed Team Relay. Like Crociani, though, it feels like 2028 will be his time to shine at the Olympics.
On the women’s side, Steinhauser is our first pick to go. She has started her season well with a 9th place at WTCS Abu Dhabi and will be in contention for a top-8 in the Olympic rankings. After finishing 8th at WTCS Bermuda and 14th at the WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi, she can also be quietly confident of getting thetop-8 she needs in Paris or Pontevedra.
Seregni’s World Cup form and recent showings at WTCS Bermuda and the World U23 Championships in Abu Dhabi make her almost impossible to omit at this stage. With her swim prowess, it is likely that Seregni will be in every breakaway that forms going forward (so long as she is racing of course). That will put her in the perfect position to take a top-8 finish in Paris or Pontevedra.
With her age, she will only improve in the bike and run too. In addition, with Steinhauser’s run and Seregni’s swim, their strengths complement one another nicely in any potential relay. Seregni would make a perfect second leg and exploit the swim. Steinhauser could then bring the relay home from the fourth leg.
Our predictions do not stop there.
Right now, Ilaria Zane is 35th in the Olympic rankings. We think she will string together the results she needs to insert herself into the top-30 and earn Italy a third women’s slot for Paris. In doing so, she should earn herself a ticket to the Olympics.
Like Crociani and Strada, Constanza Arpinelli might be a little too young this time round. She will likely make an impact at the 2028 Olympic Games.
View the full Italian policy here.
