It is the stated goal of Germany to qualify three men and three women to the Paris Olympic Games in triathlon. At this point they are almost certain to qualify three women; a third male slot, by contrast, is still up in the air.
We already know that Paris and Pontevedra will form the core components of the German selection criteria. However, the German Olympic Committee has since approved the full selection policy.
Without further ado, then, let’s dive in to how the team will be picked.
How will the athletes qualify?
The first stage of German selection will come at the Olympic Test Event in Paris. The best two finishers in the top-8 in Paris (of either gender) will be selected so long as they are also inside the top-30 of the individual Olympic rankings.
If only one athlete achieves a top-8 finish in Paris, the second slot rolls down to the next qualifying opportunity. If no one qualifies, then both slots are moved on.
The next window to qualify comes at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra. Again, the best two athletes in the top-8 in Pontevedra will earn their selection assuming they are also in the top-30 of the Olympic qualification rankings.
If an athlete finishes in the top-8 in both Paris and Pontevedra, the Pontevedra slots rolls down to the third best athlete inside the top-8 at the WTCS Final.
Thereafter, if any slots remain, one slot will be available to best ranked athlete in the 2023 WTCS. To earn qualification this way, the athlete must finish in top-12 of the final WTCS rankings and be in the top-30 of the Olympic qualification rankings. If the athlete that achieves this condition has already qualified in Paris or Pontevedra, then this slot rolls down to the next best athlete that is within the WTCS top-12.
If any slots are still available after this stage, the best ranked remaining athletes in the top-30 of the Olympic qualification rankings will be picked.
Should any slots still be open, they will finally be filled on a discretionary basis.
Who does the policy favour
Going by recent form, Lena Meißner is a clear beneficiary of this policy. Having recorded consecutive WTCS top-5 finishes, including a maiden medal at the WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi, she can be confident of hitting a top-8 finish in either Paris or Pontevedra.
Similarly, Laura Lindemann has multiple WTCS medals to her name and can be confident of achieving the top-8 finish required. Should either of those evade her, she can be confident of finishing in the top-12 of the WTCS after finishing 8th in the 2022 season.
Anabel Knoll and Meißner finished 13th and 14th, respectively, overall last year and so cannot be discounted. However, based on recent seasons Lindemann is the safer bet to make the overall top-12 this year.
On the men’s side, Lasse Lührs is the favourite to qualify under the criteria set out above. He was the only German man to finish in the top-8 of an Olympic distance WTCS race in 2022 (he finished 4th in Cagliari). Moreover, he won his first WTCS medal last season.
Given he also finished 7th overall in the Series in 2022, he should have three opportunities to earn his ticket to Paris.
Way too early team predictions
The German team is currently brimming with talent on the women’s side. At the time of writing, there are seven German women in the top-40 of the Olympic rankings.
Any one of them could feasibly qualify. Of course, with such depth it will be a challenge for all of them to make the relevant start lists. The season is nonetheless long and hierarchies could change.
The favourites to qualify are Meißner and Lindemann. If the former has the recent results in her favour, the latter has the established pedigree.
However, Lisa Tertsch is a WTCS medallist while Anabel Knoll displayed incredible consistency in 2022 until injury derailed her.
Annika Koch was runner-up at the World U23 Championships and has a World Cup win to her name. Similarly, Nina Eim is rapidly improving and in her last WTCS race achieved her best ever finish. Equally Marlene Gomez-Göggel cannot be discounted.
Somehow Germany has to pick three women from athletes that, on their day, could at least contend for at least a top-8 in a WTCS race. It might be one of the strongest generations of female triathletes Germany have had.
To pick the team way too early, Meißner, Lindemann and Knoll probably have the upper hand. Knoll stands out given she showed she could deliver under pressure when qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics and she was a regular in the WTCS top-8 for much for 2022. All she needs is one day to go her way. But then doesn’t everyone else… We never said the decision would be easy!
On the men’s side, Lasse Lührs will go. At this point in time the only question over Lührs is will he be able to step up his level further to challenge for a medal rather than to be inside the top-8. If he continues to progress at his current rate, it is no exaggeration to say he could be Germany’s first Olympic triathlon medallist since Jan Frodeno.
Meanwhile, Lührs will be joined by one of Jonas Schomburg, Johannes Vogel or Lasse Nygaard Priester.
At this point, Germany is in a tight battle to qualify a third man and we will assume they won’t for the time being.
Schomburg is in pole position as the next best ranked man in the top-30. With Schomburg, you know what you are going to get and he is a tried and trusted performer. Vogel lost some ground in the rankings after WTCS Abu Dhabi but is also close.
Priester has finished in the top-5 at WTCS races before over the Sprint distance. However, he is largely unproven over the Olympic distance and has had a long history of injuries. Will he stay fit and healthy for the remaining qualifying window and the Games themselves?
Then there is Tim Hellwig as a dark horse. The winner of WTCS Hamburg in 2021 could well qualify, although Paris may be a little early in his career. By the time Los Angeles rolls around in 2028, we can probably expect to see a much stronger Hellwig.
On balance, then we will stick with the man currently in line to take the second slot, Jonas Schomburg.
Over the rest of this year, though, everything could change and with so much depth on offer, the German race to Paris might just be one of the most exciting stories to track of 2023.
View the full selection policy here.
