Earlier this month Triathlon Australia released its Nomination Criteria for triathlon at the Paris Olympic Games. After the Australian selection and performance at the Tokyo Olympics descended into acrimony, Triathlon Australia will likely hope for smoother sailing this time around.
How will the athletes be picked?
As with a number of other countries, the Australian policy is demarcated by Automatic Nomination and Discretionary Nomination.
To be automatically selected, an athlete must finish in the top-8 at the Paris Olympic Test Event this August. In the event that more than two athletes finish in the top-8, the highest two finishers will receive the nod.
If an athlete finishes in the top-8 at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra this year, they can also earn their slot. Only one athlete can qualify this way so if more than one finishes in the top-8, the best performer will be taken.
Finally, if any slots remain after the Paris and Pontevedra events, Australian men and women will have a final opportunity to earn automatic nomination. If they achieve a top-5 at a Sprint distance WTCS race or a top-8 at an Olympic distance WTCS event to be determined between March and May 2024, they can secure their place.
Thereafter, any remaining slots will be filled on a discretionary basis.
When considering athletes for discretionary selection, the policy notes that performances at the Paris Olympic Test Event will be ranked first, followed by the Pontevedra Final and then by WTCS events.
The Mixed Team Relay is the next discretionary priority. After that comes any athlete that may be suitable for a domestique role. Ultimately, though, the selectors will take into account a range of variables when making a discretionary call.
Should no athletes achieve automatic selection, the team can be filled entirely with discretionary picks.
Who does the policy favour
The obvious candidate to benefit from this policy is Matthew Hauser. After earning three separate top-5 finishes in the WTCS in 2022, including at the Final in Abu Dhabi, Hauser can be quietly confident of securing the requisite top-8 this year.
Similarly, Jacob Birtwhistle could be favoured by this policy, While he did not have the 2022 he had hoped for, he nonetheless finished 4th at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham. As a multiple WTCS medallist, Birtwhistle is a great single day racer and may be able to piece together a top-8 finish in Paris or Pontevedra this year.
On the women’s side, Natalie Van Coevorden may be in with this best shout of meeting the criteria laid down here. In 2022, she had two 11th place finishes in the WTCS. Morevoer she is a former WTCS medallist so returning to the top-8 is within her capabilities. After being controversially left off of the team going into Tokyo, this may be her chance to rectify the past.
One thing that should also be noted is the stated goal of winning medals or selecting athletes to support medal chances. As a result, there is a chance discretionary picks will favour the relay or domestiques.
As per clause 1.3.1 of the policy, “The objective of this Nomination Criteria is to consider and identify Athletes for nomination to the AOC (Australian Olympic Committee) for selection to the Team who have the ability to win a medal, or to play a team role in winning a medal (including by increasing the likelihood of another Athlete winning a medal), at the Games.”
At first glance, the mention of the team role could indicate the concept behind the discretionary clauses. It could transpire that an athlete will be selected as a domestique over someone that could vie for the top-10.
That being said, it is obviously too early to tell how the Australian hopes will unfold.
Way too early team predictions
If we were to pick the Australian Olympic team today based on the likelihood of the criteria being met, Matthew Hauser would be the first man to make the cut. Hauser is a man on the rise and has the recent form to hit the top-8 criteria in either Paris or Pontevedra.
At this point, Australia is in line to qualify two men and two women by dint of qualifying a relay. It is the second men’s slot that is tricky. As mentioned above, Birtwhistle would be an obvious candidate. He has the talent and the history to seal automatic qualification. However, it is also possible to see him missing out and relying on a discretionary pick.
If discretion comes into play, we can see a team man like Luke Willian getting the nod. Willian has raced a number of times for the relay, although Birtwhistle did too in 2022.
If we had to pick right now between the two, we would probably take Birtwhistle, although it will be a very close battle.
On the women’s side, the situation is similarly tricky. Natalie Van Coevorden is the only Australian woman in the top-40 of the Olympic qualification rankings and has the ability to land automatic nomination.
Jaz Hedgeland is next in line in 45th place. In 2022, she had a best WTCS finish of 15th in Montreal. However, last year the best WTCS finish over the Olympic distance by an Australian woman other than Van Coevorden was Hedgeland’s sister, Kira.
Both Kira and Jaz Hedgeland are young enough to improve to hit a top-8. Likewise, Emma Jackson is experienced enough to return to the top-8. However, none of their 2022 performances really indicate that they are locks for such finishes.
As a result, there is every chance both women’s slots fall under the discretionary section of the policy, especially if Van Coevorden falls short. In that situation, it is anyone’s guess as to who Triathlon Australia would pick.
Both Van Coevorden and Sophie Linn helped Australia to a silver in the relay in Hamburg last year so would make strong candidates.
At this stage, we think Van Coevorden will get the top-8 she needs to qualify automatically. The second slot feels like it will go a Hedgeland.
Right now, Jaz would be the better relay pick. However, as Kira is not yet 25, she may be the likeliest to improve into a top-8 finish this year which would earn her the automatic slot. On current form, we are leaning towards Jaz being picked, although anything could happen this year.
Thus, our way too early Australian team would be Hauser, Birtwhistle, Van Coevorden and Jaz Hedgeland.
You can read the full policy here.
