Katie Zaferes faces a conundrum.
As things stand, she is the seventh American women in the world rankings, putting her on the wait list for the biggest races of the 2024 season. Although a busy 2024 schedule is on the cards, given her current ranking Zaferes faces a battle to get into the right races.
The crucial race for her will likely be the third and final American Olympic selection race, which will likely either be at WTCS Yokohama or WTCS Cagliari in May. That race will serve as the final opportunity for American athletes to earn automatic Olympic selection. To be sure of getting onto the start list, though, Zaferes will need to be ranked as one of the top-5 American women.
America usually receives five starting slots at WTCS races and right now the fifth-ranked women is Zaferes’ fellow former world champion and comeback athlete, Gwen Jorgensen.
Yet the margin separating the pair is incredibly tight.
Zaferes is 31st in the world rankings, with 2400 points (rounded to the nearest integer). Jorgensen is 29th, with 2559 points. Between them stands another American athlete: Gina Sereno in 30th with 2419 points.
Whichever of the trio is ranked the highest by the relevant entry deadline will realistically get to start at the selection race. If the race is in Yokohama, they will need to be ranked among the top-5 American women by mid-April. If the selection race is in Cagliari, they will have a further two weeks, until the end of April, to secure the points they need.
All three athletes have a full quota of six races in their current period (the past twelve months). Only Sereno has scores in her previous period (the subsequent 53 to 104 week block).
Zaferes, however, cannot rely on adding scores to her previous period to leapfrog her rivals.
Of her six current scores, none will become previous scores by the end of April. At the same time, she has three additional races that she completed before the end of April 2023 that can be added to her previous period.
In the previous period, scores are reduced to a third of their original value. As a result, Zaferes could add roughly 130 points to her current total. All things being equal, she should therefore overtake Sereno without racing.
Her potential previous period additions will not be enough to catch Jorgensen, though. As Jorgensen also has no previous period scores right now, she will benefit from the same mechanism.
Moreover, Jorgensen also has three scores before mid-April that are worth more points than Zaferes’ equivalent three results. Like Zaferes, none of these three results would come from her six current period scores, meaning that Jorgensen’s points tally only grows with the passage of time.
Simply put, by the end of April 2024, assuming none of Jorgensen, Zaferes and Sereno have raced, Jorgensen will have extended her rankings lead.
Another significant point to note is that, of the three looming previous scores for Zaferes and Jorgensen, one that they share might not help. At the St. Peters Americas Cup on 15 April 2023, Zaferes won, beating Jorgensen to 2nd place. However, the St. Peters event may ultimately come too late to affect the rankings ahead of the start lists for WTCS Yokohama.
The Yokohama race is slated for 11th May 2024. As such, St Peters may still be within 52 weeks of the mid-April entry deadline, stopping it from becoming a previous score.
Either way, the main takeaway is that additions to her previous period cannot save Zaferes. Instead, Zaferes must overtake Sereno and Jorgensen with race results in 2024.
Given the start lists for WTCS Abu Dhabi in March will be out before any racing takes place, Zaferes will only be able to participate in that event by being substituted in. She used a substitution to race at WTCS Abu Dhabi in 2023, replacing Taylor Knibb, however it is not a strategy to bank upon.
With the WTCS not a reliable avenue, she will have to look elsewhere.
The Napier World Cup in February would be the first event at which she could add to her points total.
Due to the current composition of her scores – she has five WTCS results and a World Cup medal – a win at a Continental Cup would not add to her current period scores as it is not worth enough points. The Oceania Cups around Napier would thus offering a sharpening opportunity at best.
Notably, Zaferes won the World Cup in New Plymouth in 2017. She therefore has prior success in the country and at an early point in the year.
Thereafter, she could attempt the Hong Kong World Cup in March. Being in a not too dissimilar time zone to Napier, it would be feasible from a travel perspective were she to remain in New Zealand for a month.
Staying in New Zealand could offer an ideal climate for training in the southern hemisphere and offer a chance to race frequently. Equally, spending such a long stint away from home not be ideal for longer term Olympic preparation. As a mother, Zaferes also has family consideration to weigh up. Athletes are not robots, after all.
Still, without Abu Dhabi, the best way for Zaferes to solve her rankings conundrum is through a Napier-Hong Kong combination.
Both are Sprint distance World Cups and thus are worth 375 points. Winning one of them will add 142 points to Zaferes’ total (her lowest score is 243 points from WTCS Hamburg). A win or a 2nd place at the other race would then replace the 307 points she scored at WTCS Pontevedra.
Meanwhile, if Jorgensen races and wins, she can only improve her points total by 28 points. Her current lowest score is a 2nd place from Huatulco, another Sprint distance World Cup.
Realistically, then, Zaferes will have to win and come 2nd across the two World Cups to overhaul Jorgensen. Factoring in Jorgensen’s forecasted additional “previous” points, two wins may even be required. To do so is not impossible although it would be a big ask.
A counter-argument could also be made that Zaferes should forget the rankings and the final selection race. She would have to hope that hope that no American woman hits the top-3 criteria at the selection event, leaving two slots to be filled via discretion.
In the meantime, Zaferes could focus on convincing the selectors that she is worthy of a discretionary selection rather than chasing points. She would then be able to focus on being a part of the American Mixed Team Relay and proving form in summer. A similar discretionary pick paid off for her in 2021.
On the other hand, chasing the rankings would be a way of keeping her future in her own hands.
Her current situation is a conundrum for sure and there is no simple way for her to progress towards Olympic selection. On balance, attempting the Napier-Hong Kong double may be the best bet to hunt a slot on the selection race start list.
At best, she could win the races and ensure she is battle-hardened for the selection race. At worst, however, she could jeopardise her chances of hitting peak form later in the summer. Stick or twist, then: that is the choice Zaferes faces.
