Tim Hellwig is on a roll.
Across the landscape of international triathlon, he is someone that can lay claim to being in the best form around. A win at last weekend’s Chengdu World Cup came after he earned the silver medal at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra. Prior to that, he earned top-8 finishes at WTCS Hamburg and the Paris Test Event while also finishing 4th at WTCS Montreal.
At almost every opportunity this year, Hellwig has stepped up and the WTCS race winner (from Hamburg in 2021) will arrive in Tongyeong brimming with confidence.
His display in Chengdu showed that he has the swimming speed to stay at the front of the race while his run and tactical nous are as sharp as ever.
However, it will be quite a challenge to knock Matthew McElroy from his Tongyeong perch. With two wins (including last year’s gold) and a silver medal from his outings in the city, the event has certainly been to the American athlete’s liking.
To paraphrase José Mourinho, McElroy racing well in Tongyeong is triathlon heritage. As good as Hellwig’s form has been, McElroy will be no pushover.
Should the two both be in contention out of T2, the difference between them on the run will likely be razor thin.
Furthermore Hellwig faces plenty of opposition from his own teammates. When it comes to recent form, it is impossible to look beyond Simon Henseleit.
The newly-crowned World U23 champion won his first ever World Cup medal in Rome earlier in the month. Notably, his Rome medal came over the Sprint distance which is the same format that will be contested in Tongyeong. Prior to that, Henseleit also finished 5th at the Karlovy Vary World Cup.
With form also on his side, look for the young German to make a play for the win.
World Cup medallists Jonas Schomburg, Lasse Nygaard Priester and Valentin Wernz will also threaten the podium. Schomburg is the most recent World Cup medallist of the three, Wernz medalled in the last South Korean World Cup (in Yeongdo in August) and Priester won two medals across August and September while also logging a high finish in Pontevedra.
On their day, any of the trio could come away with a medal.
The Sprint distance may also suit Ricardo Batista. The European Super Sprint champion has a vicious turn of speed in his arsenal and is equipped to race aggressively in all three disciplines. Last year, at the Miyazaki World Cup, he won a maiden World Cup medal over the Sprint distance and could add to his tally.
While he can certainly perform over the Olympic distance – he finished 14th in Pontevedra, after all – the Sprint seems to suit him a little more right now. He crashed in Tangier when well-placed on the bike, costing him a shot at another medal. Until that point, though, Batista had already shown what a danger he can be. Assuming he has no further bad luck, he will be a contender in Tongyeong.
When it comes to bad luck, Tyler Mislawchuk has recently become synonymous with it. From injuries to penalties (such as at WTCS Abu Dhabi this year) and various other mishaps, he has been on the cusp of hitting top form for a while only for something to yank him back at the last second.
At the same time, his 9th place in Pontevedra is hard to ignore and indicates that he could push for a medal in Tongyeong. As if Batista, he will hope for a clean race to let his talents shine through.
Max Studer should also be in the conversation for the win. He took 12th place in his last race out in Karlovy Vary. That came after finishes of 11th in Paris and 6th in Hamburg. On his day, Studer has the ability to take the win and will be a handful for his rivals on the run.
Rostislav Pevtosv will also be racing after taking a medal at the World Cup in Brasilia. With Tongyeong being on the other side of the world, the time zone change may prove a greater opponent than anyone else on the start list.
Finally, the British and Australian teams could spring a surprise. The latter have a talented squad of Luke Willian, Brandon Copeland, Oscar Dart and Jacob Birtwhistle racing. It is the former, though, that may have the most intriguing potential dark horse.
Hugo Milner is a super runner and it feels like he is on the cusp of putting a complete race together on the world level. At the Tangier World Cup, he logged a field-leading run split on his way to 21st, out-running the likes of Pierre Le Corre by a notable margin. Milner just has to get the first half of his race right.
If he can do that, he could match the feat of his teammate, Samuel Dickinson, who won the bronze medal in Tongyeong last year.
TriStats Predictions
- Tim Hellwig
- Matthew McElroy
- Ricardo Batista
- Simon Henseleit
- Hugo Milner
