Earlier in the week we put out a poll asking readers to predict which country will win the most medals across the three triathlon events at the Paris Olympics. At this point in the season, the hosts came out as the favourites.
France claimed 39% of the vote. Although the WTCS season has not yet started, they have enjoyed outstanding recent success in the Series. France can call upon the last two men’s world champions, Dorian Coninx and Leo Bergere. Both men also made the overall WTCS podium in 2023. Moreover, their ranks are further bolstered by the presence of Vincent Luis, a double world champion, and Pierre Le Corre, a WTCS gold medallist,
One of that quartet will ultimately miss out on the Games. With almost any configuration of the men’s team, though, France can field three potential medallists.
On the women’s side, Cassandre Beaugrand and Emma Lombardi took 2nd and 3rd overall, respectively, in the 2023 WTCS. As a result, both are among the leading candidates for Olympic gold this year. Furthermore, Beaugrand won two WTCS races last year and was the last woman to beat Beth Potter in the Series. To go with Beaugrand and Lombardi, France can select Leonie Periault.
Periault has won WTCS silver medals in each of past three seasons, a run that includes her silver from the WTCS Final in 2021.
As the bronze medallists in the Mixed Team Relay from the Tokyo Olympics, France have also proven their mettle in the team event. That bronze actually represented their first ever Olympic medal in the sport. Such is the strength of their squad right now, they could easily come away from Paris with medals in all three events.
Nevertheless, it could equally be the case that the pressure of performing at a home Games becomes too much and the their best-laid plans are upset.
The team favoured most to potentially out-duel France is Britain. Taking 37% of the vote, Britain came close to earning the greatest share of support in the poll.
Beth Potter is the obvious point of strength in the British line-up. As the defending world champion, she will be the favourite for gold in Paris. Beyond Potter, the rest of the women’s team is somewhat open. However, Georgia Taylor-Brown and Sophie Coldwell are WTCS race winners, while Kate Waugh powered to silver at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra. Whoever makes the team, then, will likely be a medal contender in their own right.
Currently, Alex Yee is only medal threat in men’s event for Britain. As the reigning Olympic silver medallist and winner of the most WTCS wins since Tokyo, though, he is a considerable force. With Yee and Potter alone, Britain can be confident of medalling in both individual races.
Britain also also the defending champions in the relay. At this point, they possibly don’t have the depth on the men’s side to match France. However they have plenty of Olympic know-how and can make it three medals from three events as they did in Tokyo.
Germany took the next biggest portion of the vote with 14%. They are the world champions in the relay and have already selected WTCS gold medallists Laura Lindemann and Tim Hellwig. In addition, WTCS medallists Lisa Tertsch and Lasse Luehrs are on the team, as is World Cup winner Nina Eim. The German squad is therefore in a position to fight for medals in all three events, matching France and Britain.
America only took 2% of the vote. This was a surprise given they won two medals in Tokyo and return the entire squad. Morgan Pearson won silver at the WTCS Final in 2022 and could win a medal in Paris. Likewise, Taylor Knibb is a WTCS race winner and finished 3rd overall in the Series in 2022. As the defending silver medallists in the relay from Tokyo, they should also be good value in the team event.
The remaining 8% went to “another country”. Several countries could sneak to the top of the leaderboard in this respect, especially should any of the four countries already listed falter.
New Zealand have Hayden Wilde, a WTCS gold medallist, to lead them and harbour hopes of a medal in the relay. Switzerland will also fancy relay their chances in the relay. They will likely rely upon Julie Derron, who has been most consistent WTCS threat, for an individual medal. For the most part, though, New Zealand and Switzerland would likely be elated with one triathlon medal in Paris.
Other countries could also surprise and win multiple medals. Still, for anyone outside the four main triathlon powers to win one medal would be a significant achievement.
Overall, then, as the season gets going France are favoured to fare the best in Paris. With powerful rivals and home pressure to deal with, though, it is by no means certain that the Olympics will play out as expected.
