The women’s race at the World Triathlon Championships Series Final in Abu Dhabi is a tantalising match-up. It is not just the fact that the world title is on the line. It is the contrast that Flora Duffy and Georgia Taylor-Brown offer.
What is there to say about Flora Duffy? The Olympic champion from Tokyo, Duffy defended her Commonwealth Games title in July, becoming the first triathlete to achieve that feat. She is the defending world champion. She is coming into Abu Dhabi with multiple wins this season. And she has vast experience to call upon when the decisive moment of the race arrives.
Her challenger is Georgia Taylor-Brown. Winner of WTCS Yokohama, WTCS Montreal and WTCS Cagliari, Taylor-Brown has been a dominant presence in the women’s field. In the two WTCS races she did not win this season, in Leeds and last November in Abu Dhabi, she still came 2nd.
Being seven years younger than Duffy, Taylor-Brown is at a very different stage of her career and seems to be entering the peak of her powers.
This race feels like it could be a seminal moment in the sport, a changing of the guard, a passing of the baton. A Taylor-Brown win in Abu Dhabi (and the world title that would come with it) could be the kind of event that ushers in an era in which she is the predominant athlete in the Series.
From her breakout in 2017, it seems like Taylor-Brown’s career has been building and building for her to take that final step up to the top.
And yet, Flora Duffy still stands in her path, utterly indefatigable.
Looking back to Abu Dhabi last year, Duffy took the win over Taylor-Brown with a well-measured race. As already mentioned, she also took the wins in Tokyo and Birmingham. At the three big races of the last 18 months, Duffy has always come out on top.
Though it should be noted that Taylor-Brown did suffer a mechanical towards the end of the bike in Tokyo, Duffy’s run was so much faster than anyone else’s that day, it is hard to say for sure if the mechanical really affected the result.
Taylor-Brown has since beaten Duffy, such as in Yokohama, so it is possible. It could come down to who has timed their season better and is able to peak on the day, as on paper there is very little to separate the two athletes. Given Georgia’s lead in the Series, Flora may have to be more aggressive in the race although it is difficult to predict who that will favour.
The two other athlete to win a women’s WTCS race this season will also be on the start line in Abu Dhabi.
Cassandre Beaugrand displayed her incredible talents on the way to a win at WTCS Leeds, beating both Duffy and Taylor-Brown in spite of a penalty on the run. In 2022, she has earmarked herself as possibly the best runner in the women’s field. Moreover, she has a swim that is the equal to, if not better than, Duffy and Taylor-Brown and should factor heavily in the outcome of the race.
There is, however, one question mark against Beaugrand: she has not yet performed to the same high standard over the Olympic distance.
At WTCS Yokohama, she was part of a crash so we cannot know how well she could have raced there. More recently, she was a little underwhelming at the European Championships in Munich and at WTCS Cagliari.
On paper, Beaugrand absolutely should be in contention for the win and we should probably be speaking of the Series as a three horse race. Yet, it has not always worked out like that and the longer races seem to be a slight issue for her. Her results are not bad, but when she is competing against athletes like Duffy and Taylor-Brown, she cannot afford any vulnerability.
Until she finally wins an Olympic distance race, that nagging doubt will remain. With the Paris Olympics on the horizon, it certainly would be a statement for her to take the win in Abu Dhabi and answer that doubt. That would be a result that would definitely shake up the dynamic of the Series and would be great to see.
On balance, though, the tried and trusted Duffy and Taylor-Brown are the safer bets for the win.
The other WTCS winner in the field is Laura Lindemann after her win at WTCS Hamburg in 2021. Lindemann comes into Abu Dhabi in form after taking 4th at WTCS Bermuda. While she can be expected to have a good race, though, her form does not suggest she will take down either Duffy or Taylor-Brown.
Upon reflection, it is probably Beaugrand’s compatriots, Emma Lombardi and Leonie Periault that pose the biggest threats to Duffy and Taylor-Brown.
Lombardi has 3 WTCS races to her name and is a little inexperienced at this level. However, she came 4th at WTCS Yokohama and then 2nd at WTCS Cagliari. Cagliari was particularly impressive given the way she challenged Taylor-Brown for much of the race. Her inexperience did show with a 46th place in Hamburg this summer, so she could go either way on the day in Abu Dhabi.
Leonie Periault really seems to be coming into her own and has a number of brilliant performances to her name from the last 18 months. After taking 5th at the Tokyo Olympics, she placed 2nd in the 2021 WTCS Final in Edmonton and then took 2nd in WTCS Yokohama.
More recently, she won the Karlovy Vary World Cup and came 3rd at the Valencia World Cup. She is one of the best runners in the sport and, if she is in peak shape, she could be an outsider for the win.
One key thing to note with Periault is that in the last two times she has taken an Olympic distance start line with Flora Duffy (in Yokohama and Edmonton), she has come out on top.
The entire complexion of the race could change in an instant if Taylor Knibb throws down another monster bike split. The World 70.3 Champion took bronze in Cagliari and silver in Bermuda and demonstrated her immense cycling talent at both races. After focusing on longer distance triathlon for much of this year, Knibb likely won’t have the running speed to challenge Duffy or Taylor-Brown however it would be no surprise for her to shape how the race unfolds.
Two other WTCS medallists from 2022 to note are Beth Potter and Lisa Tertsch. Both are similar athletes with serious running ability. Although Potter took her first WTCS medal over the Olympic distance in Bermuda, she did so by continuing a trend that has affected both her and Tertsch.
More often than not, both women have been too far back in a WTCS field to challenge for the win over the Olympic distance. With Duffy, Knibb and Taylor-Brown in the field, the bike will likely be fast and Potter’s and Tertsch’s brilliant running probably won’t be enough to make up ground this time.
We have changed our predictions back and forth for this race a number of times but we think Duffy will take the win on the day.
TriStats Predictions
- Flora Duffy
- Georgia Taylor-Brown
- Leonie Periault
- Taylor Knibb
- Cassandre Beaugrand
