The men’s race at WTCS Abu Dhabi essentially boils down to one question. Will the French make their strategy stick?
We noted that several of the French men have highlighted their swimming on social media in the run up to the first race of the season. This came after swim-driven breakaways saw French athletes win the last two WTCS races of 2022.
If the French are able to pull the same trick again, that will set the table for how the race can pan out.
The obvious beneficiary of the strategy would be the world champion, Léo Bergere. We identified Bergere as one of four candidates for the overall Series this year. As the best swimmer of the quartet, he would stand to benefit from any breakaway.
His countrymen, Vincent Luis and Dorian Coninx, would similarly benefit from a fast swim. Both Luis and Coninx are among the best swimmers in the world of triathlon. They will certainly be able to set a fast pace in the water. Moreover, Coninx is a two time WTCS race winner while Luis is a two time world champion.
Both will therefore have aspirations of winning the race, and perhaps more.
We omitted both from the favourites this season due to Coninx’s recent inconsistency and Luis’ heart and injury issues. Neither, though, are permanent blocking points and both men could compete for the world title. A fast start in Abu Dhabi could launch them towards the crown.
Meanwhile, Hayden Wilde might be the only man among the favourites for the world title that could live with the French in the water. He has set a lot in store against a big winter of swimming and will hope that it pays dividends. Maybe he could even slip into the front pack on the swim. After all, he was close at the WTCS Final in 2022.
Neither Alex Yee nor Kristian Blummenfelt have shown much of an answer against the speed shown in the water recently. There is a chance they have rectified that weakness, although they would be fixing a comparatively bigger weakness than Wilde.
Having said all of that, Abu Dhabi might not come down to the big breakaway the French would hope for. As the first race in the season, the athletes may need to shake off some rust before launching the more ambitious tactical moves. While Márk Dévay and Miguel Hidalgo will be useful allies on the swim, the Sprint distance may also mitigate the damage the swim can cause to the hopes of the rest of the field.
As a result, it can be expected that even if a break forms on the swim, they will not gain a big advantage and a large pack will likely form behind them. Over the 20km on the bike, it is unlikely that any small break will generate a big lead.
If the damage on the swim can be limited, that would play into the hands of Yee and Wilde.
It would also play into the hands of fast runners like Jelle Geens and Morgan Pearson. Both men medalled at the WTCS Final in November. In addition, Geens won the last Sprint distance race in Abu Dhabi in 2021. Both will therefore be impossible to discount.
TriStats Predictions
The likeliest outcome to the men’s race seems to be that the French and the swimmers try to force a breakaway and that they succeed in developing a small gap to the field. Over the course of the bike, though, the field will either come back together or limit the break to a lead of around 15 seconds.
We also think Wilde will surprise a few people and be on the cusp of the breakaway. His mere presence at the start of the bike could throw the cat among the pigeons and set him up for the win.
Geens will do what Geens does and will end up on the Abu Dhabi podium, while Yee will round out the medals.
- Hayden Wilde
- Jelle Geens
- Alex Yee
- Leo Bergere
- Morgan Pearson
