In many regards, 2023 has been a breakthrough year for Vasco Vilaca.
For years, his talent has been clear, not least since he earned a stunning silver medal at the 2020 single day world championships. Over the winter, though, he seemed to find a new level and has been rewarded with three WTCS medals this season.
His form has placed him at the top of the WTCS standings and earmarks him as the primary challenger to Hayden Wilde at WTCS Sunderland this weekend.
Wilde, for that matter, sits right behind Vilaca in the standings and a win in Sunderland would see him assume control of the Series.
After wins in Yokohama, in which he won over the Olympic distance for the first time, and Hamburg, in which he beat Alex Yee in the WTCS for the first time, Wide is primed to go even better than last season and take the world title. With Sunderland making its debut appearance in the Series, another first win could be on the cards.
Last year, Wilde won at WTCS Leeds and so has recent success to note in the UK. His form in Hamburg spoke to a man both tactically and physically at the top of his game which makes it hard to look beyond Wilde for the win.
However, there is one important point to acknowledge. Wilde will not be fully resting for the race with the Paris Olympic Test Event in his sights. He got away with this approach at the French Grand Prix in Bordeaux where he held on to take the win. Against a WTCS-calibre field, he might not be so fortunate.
By contrast, Vilaca has no real need to focus on Paris. Portugal’s Olympic selection policy does not emphasise Paris unlike many other countries. If anything, Sunderland may be more helpful in his quest to qualify for the Olympic Games as a win would both boost his Olympic ranking and his WTCS ranking.
Should Wilde not be at full capacity, then, Vilaca could strike.
The Portuguese athlete logged the fastest run split at WTCS Hamburg; he was simply defeated, like everyone else, by the timing of Wilde’s daring attack. On balance he is also a better swimmer than the New Zealand athlete. In a straight shoot-out, Wilde realistically has the upper hand over Vilaca for now. A half-distracted and not fully rested Wilde, though, can very much be beaten.
A first WTCS win thus hovers within reaching distance for Vilaca.
Although several countries have Paris as a highlight of their Olympic selection process, meaning that a few athletes will not taper for Sunderland, there are nonetheless multiple other threats to the Wilde-Vilaca duopoly.
Manoel Messias has won two WTCS medals this season after taking a bronze in Abu Dhabi and a silver in Montreal. The format did not seem to suit him in Hamburg. The danger he poses was confirmed, though, when he ripped a field-leading run split in the Mixed Team Relay.
Over the Sprint distance, Messias should be much likelier to place himself in contention for a medal. With two medals from the previous two Sprint events, he has the strongest case for another.
Jelle Geens was the bronze medallist in Montreal but will need to bounce back after an underwhelming display in Hamburg. His weekend did not quite come together as expected and part of that may be attributed to the format. Over the more conventional Sprint distance, Geens should have no problems putting himself in the mix.
In addition, Leo Bergere will be making his return to the Series after a pause following his bronze medal in Cagliari. More than anyone, he is an exemplar of the “focusing on Paris” approach given the cut-throat nature of the French Olympic selection criteria. Like Wilde, though, even if Bergere is not fully rested he will be a threat.
In Leeds last year, he launched a bold breakaway with Vincent Luis that carried him to the silver medal. At the start of this season, in Abu Dhabi, Bergere also basically took on a forty man pack single-handedly at times during the bike. He has all of the faculties required to manufacture a break and enliven the race.
That breakaway ability could be the key to vaulting him ahead of the likes of Messias and Geens, and maybe even Vilaca and Wilde if he has a great day.
Tim Hellwig and Lasse Lührs could be outside contenders for the podium. Hellwig finished 4th in Montreal while Lührs was a medallist at WTCS Leeds last year. Although Kristian Blummenfelt has pulled out after a season-best 4th place in Hamburg, his compatriot Vetle Bergsvik Thorn could still fly the flag for Norway.
The European Games champion has a vicious sprint finish which could serve him very well if the race remains close as the blue carpet arrives.
At this point, however, Wilde and Vilaca appear to be a cut above their rivals. The main question therefore is which will emerge victorious and in command of the Series.
TriStats Predictions
- Hayden Wilde
- Vasco Vilaca
- Leo Bergere
- Manoel Messias
- Tim Hellwig
