The Huatulco World Cup came down to the run in both the men’s and women’s races. In the former, David Castro Fajardo won with a late burst that saw him generate a small gap over the silver medallist, Tyler Mislawchuk. Meanwhile, Anahi Alvarez Corral won the women’s race after an outstanding run saw her steamroll the entire field.
In the race developments of both events, you can see how the run was the primary source of separation.
When considering the women’s graph, two things stand out in particular.
The first is how Alvarez recovered the time lost in the swim during the bike segment. On another day, her 45 second deficit to the leaders could have proven costly. In the end, though, she was able to ride through to the front pack as the field came together.
The second aspect that stands out is how dominant Alvarez’s surge was on the run. Even runners as estimable as Gwen Jorgensen and Rosa Tapia Maria Vidal could not get near her. Over 5km, it is rare for one athlete to create such a gap to the rest of the field. By way of comparison, take a look at the race developments for the New Plymouth World Cup here.
There, the women’s race was far more bunched than in Huatulco. The biggest takeaway from the comparison is that Alvarez’s display of speed was much like Hayden Wilde’s in New Zealand. Even then, Wilde inflicted the steepest drop on the run against his fellow breakaway partners whereas Alvarez did it to practically the entire field.
It is too early to say for sure, but the young Mexican could be en route to developing a level of running superiority over the field comparable to that of Wilde.
The men’s race development is a little more classic on the run.
Several athletes were better than the rest of the field; that is the way racing normally goes. However the likes of Castro, Mislawchuk, Peñaflor and Grau were fairly close together.
One big difference between the men’s and the women’s races was the fortune of the chase pack. Whereas Alvarez and the chase managed to bridge up to the front group, the men’s chase pack were not so lucky. Those that lost over 20 seconds in the swim therefore generally fell into the chase and saw their hopes vanish over the course of the bike.
The Swims
One potential reason for the difference in fortunes for the chase packs could have been the speed in the swim.
In the women’s race, Yifan Yang was superb in the water and only two women were within 10 seconds of her. Such was her pace, the field was highly strung.
By contrast, while Tyler Mislawchuk impressed by leading out the swim, there were fifteen men within 10 seconds of him. That greater concentration of men allowed for a front pack to organise themselves much more quickly than the women’s field.
Indeed, such was the disarray of the women’s field after Yang’s swim, the women’s front pack only really came into shape at the end of the first bike lap. By that point, the chase were practically upon them.
To highlight the difference further, Genis Grau had the tenth fastest men’s swim in a time of 8:59, or 7 seconds behind the leader. In the women’s field, Gwen Jorgensen had the tenth fastest swim in 9:55, or 16 seconds back. That extra gap at the front was a big factor in whether the front group could structure itself to resist the chase.
The Bikes
The bike segments did not really shake up the races to any great deal. Beyond the fates of the chase groups, there was not a great deal to note in either race.
To illustrate how the bike legs did not alter the dynamics of the races, consider the below bubble plots. A “group” is taken when the gap between the last member of the pack and the first member of the next pack is at least 10 seconds.
You can see that once the women’s field came together on lap 2 after the chase group reduced their deficit on the first lap. Thereafter the race barely changed for the subsequent laps.
In the men’s race, there was real parity between the two bikes packs until the final lap.
Neither races, then, had especially aggressive bike sections. Perhaps the heat played a part in this. Equally the large group sizes could have affected how hard some athletes worked on the bike.
Either way, the absence of any major moves on the bike left the race to be determined on the run.
The Runs
It is therefore unsurprising to see that the athletes with the fastest run splits came away with the gold medals.
To link back to the race developments, you can see how much bigger the difference between Alvarez’s and Jorgensen’s splits were than Castro’s and Peñaflor’s.
At the same time, Castro’s run should not be diminished. Only eight men were able to get within 30 seconds of his split.
Tyler Mislawchuk can also take heart from his showing. Based on the splits, he did everything possible to put himself in position to win the race. To go back to the swim, the fact that he led the way is a big positive for his form in the first discipline. Furthermore, as Mislawchuk only lost by 1 second, it is clear that Castro’s win came from the run.
The difference in split times indicates that Mislawchuk was actually better positioned off the bike and out of T2. He did everything right but just came up against an athlete in red-hot form. On another day, Mislawchuk might have taken the win.
One final point to note is that Alvarez actually out-split seventeen men. Going forward, she will have to treated with caution by the field. If she is anywhere near the front out of T2, she poses one of the most lethal threats in the sport.
