The second event in the World Cup double header this weekend, Samarkand will a new stop on the circuit. Uzbekistan has never hosted a World Cup before and so the race will be unchartered territory for everyone involved. Heading into the event, though, one thing that seems likely is that the race will come down to a fight between the breakaway and World Cup winner David Cantero del Campo.
Cantero is the fastest runner in the field. We can assert this because, in addition to having raced internationally on the track as a Junior, the Spanish athlete has beaten pretty much every opponent in Samarkand across his two medal-winning performances in a breakout 2023. As he showed on his way to victory in Valencia and the podium in Tangier last year, if he is in contention out of T2 he will likely win.
It took a Pierre Le Corre in top form to beat Cantero in Tangier and there is no one on the Samarkand start list operating at Le Corre’s level. While athletes like 2022 World U23 champion Connor Bentley and World Cup winner Crisanto Grajales are strong runners, they are on paper not as fast as Cantero.
All things being equal, then, if the race stays together, Cantero probably wins.
However, the race is not between Cantero and each man on the start list individually. Rather, it is between him and the breakaway. In this respect, the group may come out on top. At the recent World Cups in Hong Kong, Wollongong and Chengdu, breakaways played a key role in shaping the men’s race and in each of the three events the fastest runners on the day missed the medals behind those that escaped earlier in the race. Of particular significance, Cantero ran into the top-5 but missed the podium in Hong Kong after failing to make it into the breakaway.
Several top breakaway exponents will be starting in Samarkand. Wearing number 1 will be Jonas Schomburg and he will be central to any escape group. He is up against Lasse Nygaard Priester in a German Olympic race that is almost over (if Schomburg beats Priester in Samarkand again it really is over). Priester won multiple World Cup medals in 2023 and necessity could force something special out of him this weekend. Schomburg has gotten the better of him thus far, though.
Márk Dévay will be a handy ally to Schomburg. He was a pivotal part of the breakaway in Wollongong and Chengdu and will be on the hunt for another World Cup medal.
Valentin Morlec earned a personal best World Cup finish of 5th in Chengdu after making the breakaway and will look to repeat the trick. His fellow French contenders Nathan Grayel, Yanis Seguin and Louis Vitiello could also affect the race but to medal they may also need to sneak into a break.
With exceptional cyclists like Panagiotis Bitados and Emil Holm present and in with a shot of joining a potential breakaway, the main pack might not have a chance. Speaking of Bitados, Samarkand feels like it could be his breakthrough performance. He has impressed since making his World Cup debut last season and has steadily progressed with each race. Assuming he makes the escape group this weekend, a first World Cup medal or even first win may well be on the cards.
Considering the field, then, the men’s race in Samarkand feels ripe for another breakaway. If that eventuality does transpire, the crucial question will concern the location of Cantero. If he is close enough to the leaders, it will be game over. However if the leaders hold him at bay, his fireworks on the run may be defused.
TriStats Predictions
- Panagiotis Bitados
- Jonas Schomburg
- David Cantero del Campo
- Márk Dévay
- Valentin Morlec
