The last World Cup race of 2022 kicks off in Chile this weekend and represents one of the final chances of the year to score invaluable points on the road to potentially qualifying for the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Based on the Americas Cup event in the same location back in February of this year, Viña del Mar promises to be a fast race.
The women’s winner in February was Luisa Baptista of Brazil and she will be on the start line this weekend. She comes into the race in great form having won the won Asuncion South American Games and then more recently the Americas Championships with the best run of the field.
Last weekend she placed 9th at WTCS Bermuda with yet another strong run split.
Looking further back, she placed 17th in the Karlovy Vary World Cup in September and finished 5th at the Long Distance World Championships in Samorin. Baptista’s recent form and previous win in Viña del Mar mark her out as one to beat.
One woman that will challenge Baptista is Lisa Perterer. The Austrian athlete recently came 12th in the Tongyeong World Cup after finishing 15th in the Bergen World Cup and 4th at the Huatulco World Cup earlier this year. Her Huatulco result is a good marker as she has performed well in similar conditions before and is known for putting in strong runs in hot climates.
One athlete on the start list that will be a bit of an unknown is Claire Michel. Following injury, Michel has not raced a great deal since Tokyo but managed 9th place at the World Cup in Arzachena this year.
The key with Michel is to look further back. In 2019 she placed 4th at WTCS Edmonton and 6th at WTCS Montreal which demonstrates her tremendous ability. As she returns to form, she could be on the podium in Viña del Mar.
When it comes to athletes with recent form, Audrey Merle stands out having won the Tongyeong World Cup with a fantastic performance after a tricky couple of years. Merle also comes into the race off the back of strong WTCS performances. She came 14th in Yokohama and 13th in Montreal this year.
Similarly, Petra Kurikova comes into Viña del Mar having won the Pontevedra World Cup this year. Both athletes have the potential to take the win. However, Kurikova has not finished a race since that triumph in Pontevedra so judging her form is a little more of a challenge. More generally, she has also been a little inconsistent. She could show up and storm to the win but equally she could be out of the running altogether.
When talking of consistency, attention has to go to Sandra Dodet of France. This year alone she won the Arzachena World Cup, came 3rd in Pontevedra and finished 4th in Tongyeong. Of all the athletes listed here, she has arguably been the most reliable. With Dodet’s running prowess, the course at Viña del Mar should suit her and it would be a surprise to see her out of contention.
Beatrice Mallozzi could be a threat but it is hard to say for sure as she has not raced frequently enough to have any real insight into her form. Her only result in 2022 is a recent 6th place at the Alanya European Cup. The thing is, in 2019 Mallozzi was a dominant Junior athlete, taking the wins at both World Junior Championships and European Junior Championships. Given her talent, she could be a dark horse in this race.
Another former World Junior champion will be starting in the form of Tamara Gorman. The American has had a solid year, taking 13th place in Tongyeong and 17th in Arzachena.
As the 2013 World Junior champion and 2017 World U23 champion, Gorman displayed fantastic progression throughout the start of career, culminating in 2019 with top-10 finishes at WTCS Leeds and WTCS Yokohama. In 2019 she also came 2nd at the World Cups in Banyoles and Karlovy Vary and 3rd at the Cape Town World Cup. That top form is still returning but Gorman is still young and has an incredibly high ceiling based on prior performances. This race could be one in which she takes another a step forward.
The race at Viña del Mar could play out in multiple ways however it is hard to look beyond the form of Luisa Baptista and Sandra Dodet this year. On balance, we would lean towards Baptista as the favourite as local conditions and the course lean towards her strengths.
TriStats Predictions:
- Luisa Baptista
- Sandra Dodet
- Lisa Perterer
- Beatrice Mallozzi
- Audrey Merle
