In many respects, over the post-Tokyo Olympic cycle the American women’s team has come full circle.
Whereas some countries, such as Germany, have seen a myriad of shifts during this cycle, America finds itself essentially right back where it started. Alarmingly for the rest of the world, that position is one of strength.
The Paris Olympic Test Event will be the first chance for any of the US squad to qualify for next year’s Olympic Games. Three of the five starters can head to the race in particularly high spirits having won WTCS medals this season.
Taylor Spivey claimed bronze medals in Abu Dhabi and Cagliari. Taylor Knibb likewise struck bronze in Yokohama while Summer Rappaport did so too in Montreal. Then there’s Katie Zaferes and Kirsten Kasper, both of whom could secure their Olympic berths.
Waiting in the wings will be Erica Ackerlund, Gina Sereno and Tamara Gorman. Gwen Jorgensen could even complete her comeback by making the Olympic team next summer.
In general, though, the American team has basically remained in stasis for the best part of two years.
If we wind back the clock to the previous cycle, Zaferes was perhaps the preeminent American triathlete. Having won Olympic bronze individually in Tokyo and helped the Mixed Team Relay to silver, the 2019 world champion was coming of successful Games in spite of personal hardship in the build up.
She followed her performance in Tokyo with 4th place finishes at WTCS Montreal and WTCS Edmonton. As she took a maternity break from the sport, she stepped away from elite action, leaving two others to fly the flag.
The two Taylors, Knibb and Spivey, appeared to be the leading American women in the absence of Zaferes. Both, however, exited the Tokyo cycle in very different spaces.
Knibb won a silver at the Games in the Mixed Team Relay, having finished 16th individually, and was regarded by most as the brightest young prospect of American triathlon. She had claimed a first WTCS win earlier in the year in Yokohama and she had the potential to become the face of the team.
When she claimed a silver in Montreal and then won in Edmonton in dramatic solo fashion, Knibb seemed to confirm that her time had arrived.
Meanwhile, Spivey had been engulfed in a minor controversy as she was overlooked in favour of Zaferes at the Games. She rebounded at Montreal to claim 3rd (ahead of Zaferes but behind Knibb). However, medals became scarce over a frustrating eighteen months.
No medals followed in 2022 as a combination of incredible consistency and near-misses became her calling card. From WTCS Montreal in 2021 to today, Spivey has raced fourteen WTCS races and finished outside top-10 once. In that time she has also finished 4th four times.
Having ended her 2021 with a 5th place in Abu Dhabi and started 2022 with a 6th place in Yokohama, Knibb dipped out of the Series for almost six months. Without her and with Spivey battling some kind of cosmic jinx, the American women did not step onto the podium.
That changed in October as Knibb returned to win bronze at WTCS Cagliari. Next up, she added a silver medal at WTCS Bermuda.
At the start of 2023, then, the Knibb-Spivey axis remained central to the American team, with Knibb looking like the safer bet for an Olympic medal.
In Abu Dhabi, at the first WTCS race of 2023, Spivey found her way back onto the podium. Knibb then beat her to the podium in Yokohama but Spivey made it back into the medals with another bronze in Cagliari.
Moreover, the third Olympic team member for 2021 had also rallied.
Summer Rappaport finished 14th in Tokyo and then added a bronze medal at WTCS Hamburg a month later. However, aside from a 5th place in Montreal, her WTCS form deserted her in 2022. She did not log bad results per se, but for an athlete that won three straight medals in 2019 and kicked off her 2021 Series with a silver in Yokohama, she had not matched her high standard.
At the end of 2022, she underwent a change of coach as she returned to the US under the eye of Ian O’Brien. That move paid off as Rappaport earned 4th place behind Spivey at WTCS Abu Dhabi. Since then, she has not left the top-10. Finishes of 10th in Yokohama, 7th in Cagliari and 10th in Hamburg followed.
Crucially, she returned to the WTCS podium in between with a bronze in Montreal.
At the end of 2022, Rappaport looked a little vulnerable but her form in 2023 has assuaged any concerns. In the Olympic rankings right now, Spivey sits in 2nd, Rappaport in 7th and Knibb in 9th.
Yet the dynamic of 2021 has returned all the same.
Following her maternity break, Zaferes came back to the sport. She took 37th place at her first race back in Abu Dhabi. By her next WTCS race, in Cagliari, she upgraded that to 12th. In Montreal, she went better still by taking 5th place.
An 18th place followed in Hamburg, although a fall in transition compromised her to an extent.
With Zaferes’ return, and her return to something close to top form, the American selection conundrum is no different in 2023 than it was in 2021 or even 2019.
Zaferes has more WTCS wins than her rivals put together, she is proven at the Olympic level and she is showing signs of being back to her best. Yet her three direct rivals have medalled in the WTCS this year.
At the Paris Olympic Test Event, as many of two of those places could be settled in Paris. As per the American selection policy, the first two athletes in the top-3 will be automatically selected. Should one athlete finish in the top-3, the next best athlete in the top-8 will also be picked. If there are no medallists, the best finisher inside the top-8 will be selected.
With 8th as the magic number, that brings Kirsten Kasper firmly into the mix. This year she finished 8th in Yokohama, while she claimed 6th place in Cagliari in October.
Medals, though, will be the key factor to unlock a second selection slot. Since Tokyo, Rappaport has won two WTCS medals, Spivey three and Knibb five. Knibb is the only American woman with a gold or silver since Tokyo (she has one gold and two silvers in the WTCS since the Games). As a result, Knibb seems the more reliable bet to make the podium in Paris.
Knibb and Spivey have also medalled over the Olympic distance in the WTCS this year and both have been fixtures of the breakaway. Their odds therefore look promising.
Given Spivey’s consistency she should also be in the top-8. The question, though, is who else among the American team will be.
Recent history may lean towards Knibb and Spivey securing Olympic selection in Paris. Yet Rappaport, Zaferes and Kasper have all shown the ability to finish in the top-8 this season. It is simply impossible to discount any of them. A fair assessment would be that three, or even four, American women could break into the top-8 at the Test Event.
The top-8 aspect acquires a new level of significance when looking at the subsequent stages of the American selection policy. The remaining spots can be sealed with a medal at WTCS Pontevedra or a medal at a third WTCS selection race to be determined in 2024. Thereafter, discretionary selections come into play with the relay also taking up consideration.
Beyond the starters at the Test Event, Ackerlund has a best WTCS finish of 13th this season but will need a podium to lock in Olympic selection. Sereno and Gorman likewise will need to rise to a medal at selection race but maybe Los Angeles in 2028 will be their time.
If only one slot is taken in Paris, the discretionary policy suddenly becomes more likely which brings Jorgensen into the mix.
The 2016 Olympic champion has pinned her hopes on relay selection. Since making her comeback, she has finished 30th in Hamburg and 24th in Sunderland and may not have enough time to crack an Olympic distance podium. However, she showed in the WTCS Hamburg repechages that the running speed of old is still there.
It is entirely possible, if the selection race falls a certain way, that both Zaferes and Jorgenesn make the Olympic team.
The greater intrigue, though, is the fact that over the Olympic cycle the conversation around the American women’s team has not really changed. The same players remain from the build-up to Tokyo and the pecking order has not dramatically shifted in the intervening time.
When the Test Event kicks off, then, and the American race within a race begins, there will not be much new at play. With everything at stake, will history repeat itself or will something new unfold?
