Sometimes an athlete enters a run of form in which everything they touch turns to gold.
In recent weeks Nicole Van Der Kaay has given every indication of being in that kind of form. In three races, she has rattled off three wins in Wanaka, Taupo and Devonport.
The litmus test of her form now comes with the step up to the World Cup level. To date, Van Der Kaay has won a solitary medal at the World Cup level. That just happened to come at the New Plymouth World Cup in 2018 when she took silver.
Since then, she has gone on to win a first WTCS medal (a silver in Hamburg in 2021). Moreover, she won the Oceania Cup in New Plymouth this time last year.
The stars therefore seem to be aligning for a Van Der Kaay win this weekend. She has the form, the history and the improvement curve which, when considered together, are as close as it gets to a royal flush in triathlon.
With Hayden Wilde favoured to win the men’s race, Van Der Kaay could make it a double success for New Zealand.
However, she is not the only athlete that arrives in form.
Sandra Dodet of France has not yet raced this season but her form on the World Cup level has been seriously impressive. She bookended her 2022 with World Cup wins in Arzachena and Viña del Mar. In between, she added a bronze at Pontevedra World Cup and narrowly missed another medal in Tongyeong.
Recently, Dodet also switched up her training to join Mickaël Ayassami’s group in Saint-Raphaël, France.
One area in which Dodet may cede ground to Van Der Kaay is race sharpness. With three races under her belt already this year, Van Der Kaay will be primed ahead of New Plymouth. By contrast, Dodet might not yet be in top shape. Given that uncertainty, Van Der Kaay probably arrives as the favourite.
There are a number of athletes that will also shape the race and be in the mix.
Emma Jeffcoat will almost inevitably lead the race on the swim and bike. Interestingly, Van Der Kaay was able to hang with Jeffcoat in Devonport. Perhaps the duo will instigate a similar breakaway this weekend.
Claire Michel will be starting on the back of a good showing at WTCS Abu Dhabi. Her 14th place hinted that she may finally be out of the woods after a spell of rotten luck with injuries. On her day, Michel would definitely be a contender to win this race. As she has already been based in New Zealand for a couple of weeks following Abu Dhabi, she could have a sneakily good performance up her sleeve.
When looking at recent form, Xinyu Len won the Asia Cup in Hong Kong in a rounded performance. She could be an outsider to influence the race on the bike.
Then we come to one of the biggest storylines.
New Plymouth will represent Gwen Jorgensen’s first world-level race since her return to the sport. In her first race back, she won a bronze medal in Taupo behind Van Der Kaay.
With another month under her belt, a sharper Jorgensen can be expected in New Plymouth.
At the same time, notwithstanding her experience and class as a runner, there is no reason to think Jorgensen will beat Van Der Kaay this time round. If anything Van Der Kaay looked even stronger at her most recent showing in Devonport.
Jorgensen will no doubt have also improved, but on balance it is unlikely she has improved to the point of overhauling the momentum of Van Der Kaay. Sometimes an athlete simply has a hot hand.
While Jorgensen’s race will be of interest, perhaps the greater intrigue will arise from her compatriots.
Gina Sereno arrives in New Plymouth after winning a silver medal behind Dodet in Viña del Mar. It is Erika Ackerlund, though, that might be the main American to watch. Ackerlund has been steadily growing over the past few seasons and will be wearing number 1 in New Plymouth.
In the broader picture, Ackerlund is relatively young in the sport; Abu Dhabi was her first WTCS Final after all.
She has been consistent across the WTCS in the past two seasons, finishing outside the top-20 only once. In a field that is not quite as deep as that of a WTCS race, expect Ackerlund to be in the mix.
Much in the same way Van Der Kaay has stepped up a level at the start of the season, Ackerlund seems like she too is about to take the next step up in her career.
Furthermore the women’s field has no shortage of dark horses for the medals.
Following her return to racing in late 2022 after a nasty bike crash, Beatrice Mallozzi is on the verge of confirming the immense promise she showed as a Junior.
Similarly, Anahi Alvarez Corral is another young athlete that could break through. To preface this, it has to be acknowledged that Alvarez had a bad day at WTCS Abu Dhabi where she was lapped out of the race. All of her problems there stemmed from the swim.
However, if she can navigate the swim, she is one of the best runners in the field.
After a silver medal at the Valencia World Cup, it seems at this stage in her career Alvarez is liable to contend for medals or miss the main pack entirely. That inconsistency is to be expected from young athletes and, given the way Alvarez races, her fluctuations are likely to be a little more pronounced.
With Jeffcoat and Van Der Kaay pushing the pace in the water, New Plymouth might not be the right race for her to show her best side. Yet if she can find her way into the main group, she could equally win the whole thing.
Finally, Marta Pintanel Raymundo comes into the race on the back of a 24th place at WTCS Abu Dhabi, her best performance yet. After a 4th place at the Viña del Mar World Cup, she has shown she is definitely an athlete on the rise. Of all the youngsters in the field, she feels like the safest bet to break into the top-5 and maybe even onto the podium.
TriStats Predictions
- Nicole Van Der Kaay
- Sandra Dodet
- Erika Ackerlund
- Gwen Jorgensen
- Marta Pintanel Raymundo
