On paper, Georgia Taylor-Brown is the favourite going into the first race of the new WTCS season in Abu Dhabi.
It is hard to make the case against her. The only woman that has beaten her more than once over the past 18 months will not be on the start line, clearing the path for what should be a fairly comfortable victory. Whether the race evolves into a breakaway or comes down to a foot race out of T2, Taylor-Brown has the versatility to compete in any situation.
After two consecutive silver medals in Abu Dhabi, it might be third time lucky for Taylor-Brown.
Furthermore Taylor Knibb will not be racing. Knibb secured 3rd in the overall Series last year and is a threat to any athlete on the bike, even one as good as Taylor-Brown. Her absence removes a bit of the unpredictability to the second discipline.
However, there is one athlete that looks like they may have the advantage over Taylor-Brown.
Cassandre Beaugrand will be a contender in Abu Dhabi and a dark horse for the Series. She is the only woman aside from Flora Duffy to have beaten Taylor-Brown in the past 18 months. She did so at WTCS Leeds which, crucially, was also over the Sprint distance.
The crucial piece of information with Beaugrand is that she recorded a 15:39 5km on the road only last week. It is clear, then, that Beaugrand’s running is in good shape early in the season.
As such, Taylor-Brown will have to be careful with her tactics.
This is where another Brit, Sophie Coldwell, comes into the picture. Coldwell won a bronze medal in Abu Dhabi in 2021 over the Sprint distance so has history at the venue.
Someone like Coldwell has the potential to shape the race. Coldwell herself is coming off the back of a training camp in Australia in which she has raced on the bike so may be looking to make a move on the second discipline. If she is fresh enough to do so, she could make for an entertaining day out.
On the other hand, if she is not fully recovered from her Australian efforts, that would likely lead to the type of race that would benefit the runners.
There is every chance Taylor-Brown and Coldwell work together to try to force some kind of move on the bike. In some respects, it would resemble the British tactics at the women’s World U23 Championships in Abu Dhabi when two Brits, Kate Waugh and Jessica Fullagar, worked together to attack on the bike.
Such a move by Coldwell and Taylor-Brown would put Beaugrand on the back foot and put them in pole position to take the gold and silver.
On balance, though, it feels like Beaugrand’s running is simply too strong right now. 15:39 represents a kind of speed few of the other athletes possess. Moreover, over the Sprint distance, it is unlikely Taylor-Brown and Coldwell manufacture a big enough gap to withstand a charging Beaugrand.
After all, Coldwell tried the same tactic at WTCS Leeds last year and was still overpowered on the run by Beaugrand.
Beaugrand’s team mates, Leonie Periault and Emma Lombardi, each have WTCS medals in the last 12 months and make up the remainder of the French danger.
Given the absence of Knibb and Duffy, there is a strong chance that the race turns into a foot race out of T2. That environment would favour both Lombardi and Periault.
If we are talking fast runners, then we also cannot ignore Coldwell’s and Taylor-Brown’s team mate, Beth Potter. After a breakout year in which she won three WTCS medals, Potter asserted herself as one of the best in the field in 2022. On her day, she can match virtually anyone on the run.
The main question will be how fresh the athletes are at this point in the year. We have seen Beaugrand run fast recently. By contrast we are a little in the dark over the form of Potter, Periault and Taylor-Brown.
While a running race would also suit Lisa Tertsch, it is possible to see a race that aids her compatriot, Lena Meißner. Meißner won bronze at the WTCS Final in November after making the breakaway. With fast swimmers like Jolien Vermeylen and Vittoria Lopes in the field, in addition to skilled breakaway practitioners like Sophie Coldwell, there is a possibility that another breakaway sticks which could help Meißner into the medals.
One dark horse to keep an eye on is Anahi Alvarez Corral. The Mexican athlete was brilliant on the run in Abu Dhabi at the World U23 Championships and also won a World Cup medal last year. If it comes down to a running race, watch for her to light up the circuit.
TriStats Predictions
It is possible to see Taylor-Brown and Coldwell forcing some kind of attack on the bike. However, we expect that Beaugrand will have too much for either of them on the run.
- Cassandre Beaugrand
- Georgia Taylor-Brown
- Sophie Coldwell
- Leonie Periault
- Beth Potter
