In the history of the European Championships, Luxembourg has won a solitary medal at the Senior elite event. That came back in 2009 when Elizabeth May took silver behind Nicola Spirig.
Heading into the 2023 event in Madrid this weekend, the Grand Duchy might just have their best chance in over a decade to rise one step higher up the podium.
Jeanne Lehair will arrive in Madrid on the back of 3rd place at the European Cup in Quarteira and 5th place at WTCS Cagliari. Since completing the switch of her sporting nationality to Luxembourg in November, she has acquired a momentum that few in the sport can match.
At both Cagliari and WTCS Yokohama she recorded the second fastest run split over 10km. As such, a similar fast run should be on the cards in Madrid. Moreover, over the winter she proved her speed on foot, most notably at the French Cross Country Championships. Last season, Lehair did not have quite as good a day as hoped at the European Championships in Munich however she has the form and speed to correct that this time round.
If the event comes down to a running race, there are only a handful of woman that are able to beat her right now.
At the same time, there are a number of dangers to her gold medal hopes in the field. Among them are the French team; it was not so long ago that Lehair would have been teammates with them at such competitions. Now, the likes of Audrey Merle, Sandra Dodet and Mathilde Gautier will be direct rivals.
Merle beat Lehair on the run in Quarteira to take the silver medal. She has proven that she has the run speed to compete and, as a World Cup winner, has the class to take the win in Madrid. Similarly, Dodet is an exceptional runner and has a litany of World Cup medals to her name. Neither will roll over when Lehair gets going in the third discipline.
Then there is perhaps the biggest danger.
Gautier could put Lehair on the back foot from the start; she did the same to Dodet and Merle at the World Military Championships after logging fantastic swim and bike times. Furthermore she swam well at the French Grand Prix race in Fréjus and was only undone by a mechanical on the bike.
With the swim being Lehair’s weaker discipline, Gautier could be the one to exploit it and push ahead to take the win.
Maya Kingma would be perfect support for Gautier. As one of the best swimmers and cyclists in the women’s WTCS, Kingma would undoubtedly improve any potential breakaway. The only hesitancy in predicting how Kingma will fare comes from the breathing problems that saw her struggle on the run in Cagliari. After the race she needed over an hour of treatment.
The health of the athlete has to come first so hopefully Kingma will be fine but such a concern cannot be glossed over. At her best Kingma could win the race; in most cases, too, she would abet any breakaway. However, given the medical doubt was so recent, perhaps it is best not to put any expectation on her performance.
Kate Waugh finished 5th in Yokohama, earning a personal best finish to match Lehair’s Cagliari showing. She is a similar type of athlete to Gautier and Kingma and can back up hard efforts on the bike with fast run splits. It is possible to see some kind of breakaway primarily comprised of Gautier, Kingma and Waugh transpiring. In that eventuality, Lehair would need a big run to chase them down.
Miriam Casillas is a proven performer and a great runner. Having studied medicine in Madrid, the race will be in many respects a home event for her. She will therefore have extra support and in all likelihood an increased motivation to take the win. Her season has not quite clicked yet but, as seen over the last two years, when it does click for her she will be hard to beat.
Among a strong German contingent, Annika Koch might be the leading hope. Last year she finished 10th at European Championships. She also added a silver at the World U23 Championships (behind Waugh) and has a habit of stepping up at big races. She could be a contender.
Lisa Tertsch sometimes blows a little hot and cold but on her day can rival anyone in the field over 10km. After a top-10 performance in Cagliari, her challenge will be to hold her form.
Finally Tanja Neubert could be an interesting athlete to watch. She won an African Cup in Yasmine Hammamet at the weekend and looked in great shape at Bundesliga Kraichgau. At both events her cycling was exceptional. With each lap of the course in Madrid taking on a steep climb, there should be scope for a strong cyclist to make a break. Neubert could be one such athlete.
In light of a string of African Cup victories earlier in the year, Babara De Koning also cannot be ignored. The dark horse for the podium, though, might just be Maria Tomé. The Portuguese athlete finished 6th at the New Plymouth World Cup, earned silver in Fréjus and claimed the Portuguese national title.
All of those events were over the Sprint distance so there may be a question mark over how she will fare over the Olympic distance. Nevertheless, she has had a tremendous season so far and could beat a few of the names listed above.
TriStats Predictions
- Mathilde Gautier
- Jeanne Lehair
- Audrey Merle
- Kate Waugh
- Miriam Casillas
