Unless something shocking happens or terrible luck strikes, the 2022 women’s World Triathlon Championship Series will be won by either Georgia Taylor-Brown or Flora Duffy.
Entering Abu Dhabi, the Series is perfectly poised between the pair. Taylor-Brown sits on 3925 points after two wins and two silver medals. Duffy sits on 3856 points, only 69 points behind, after three wins and a bronze medal.
Such is the nature of the points system in the Final, whoever finishes first of the two athletes in Abu Dhabi will take the world title. Given their form this season, we can expect that Duffy and Taylor-Brown will battle for the race win. As such, the only way to guarantee becoming world champion will be to win the final WTCS race of the year.
The race for 3rd in the Series promises to be carnage as five women head to Abu Dhabi will realistic hopes of taking the position.
Beth Potter is the incumbent with 3369 points. At almost 500 points behind Duffy, it is unlikely she or anyone else will make the jump to 2nd overall. Nevertheless, after a season in which Potter has taken the first three WTCS medals of her career, including last time out at WTCS Bermuda, to take 3rd in the Series would be a fantastic achievement and a big step forward in her career.
In 4th place, 169 points behind Potter, is Laura Lindemann. After a win in WTCS Hamburg in 2021, Lindemann had a quieter 2022 than anticipated. However, after a 4th place finish in Bermuda, she heads to Abu Dhabi in form. If Potter falters at all, Lindemann will be in prime position to make the most of an opportunity. For example, if Lindemann finishes 4th in Abu Dhabi, Potter will have to finish better than 7th to defend her current position.
Taylor Knibb now sits only 10 points behind Lindemann on 3190 points. A bronze medal at WTCS Cagliari and a silver at WTCS Bermuda means that she enters the Final in great form. With her cycling and running abilities, she will doubtless be a factor in determining how the race pans out. If Knibb takes 3rd place in Abu Dhabi, she will have to beat Lindemann and hope that Potter finishes in 6th place or worse.
The gap to 6th somehow gets even smaller as Cassandre Beaugrand sits only 9 points behind Knibb with 3181 points. After winning WTCS Leeds and taking silver at WTCS Montreal, it briefly looked like Beaugrand could challenge for the world title.
Her tilt at the title has not quite come together, though, and now she will have a battle to secure a place on the Series podium. She might just be the best runner in the field so could threaten for the race win. However, she could equally be the athlete most vulnerable to Knibb’s cycling, as was the case in Cagliari where she missed the split on the bike caused by Knibb and went on to finish 8th.
Like Knibb, if Beaugrand finishes 3rd in Abu Dhabi, beats Knibb and Lindemann, and Potter finishes 6th or worse, it will be Beaugrand that takes 3rd place in the overall Series.
Next we come to Taylor Spivey. Spivey has been one of the most consistent athletes on the WTCS circuit this season, with five finishes in the top-6. She has not yet cracked the podium in a WTCS this season but has been awfully close with three 4th place finishes.
With 3105 points, Spivey is 95 points from taking fourth overall and 264 points away from third. As a seasoned racer with WTCS medals in the past to her name, she should not be discounted.
Even 8th place in the women’s standings could make a run at the podium. Sophie Coldwell sits in that slot with 2964 points. A bad back hampered her performance in Bermuda but she will come into Abu Dhabi refreshed and with the experience of taking bronze at the venue in 2021. 405 points might be a touch too far for her to overhaul Potter. For example, if Coldwell took 3rd in Abu Dhabi, Potter would still remain ahead of her with a 9th place finish.
However, Coldwell could definitely rise several places with a strong Final. A podium finish would put a lot of pressure on the women ahead of her.
It is also important to note that 3rd in the Series is worth an additional USD $37,000 payday. 8th overall, meanwhile, will earn an extra USD $11,000. The shifting places will be therefore worth a substantial amount of money to the athletes.
Looking back to last year, Knibb finished 5th in Abu Dhabi (behind Coldwell), while Beaugrand was 6th and Potter was 7th. The Final will likely be incredibly tight and the Series standings might not be decided until a sprint finish.
Maya Kingma looks to have consolidated 9th place overall with her 6th in Bermuda. She has 2571 points and has a lead of 221 points over Miriam Casillias Garcia in 10th.
Casillas Garcias has had a strong season with four top-10 race finishes and would be thoroughly deserving of a top-10 overall. However, she is only 9 points ahead of Anabel Knoll who has 2341 points. Knoll has been as consistent as Casillas Garcia, with a worst counting WTCS finish of 11th. On the two occasions the pair have gone head-to-head in the Series this year, Knoll has come out on top twice (in Yokohama and Leeds).
Lurking just behind are Kirsten Kasper with 2263 points and Emma Lombardi with 2258 points. After Lombardi’s silver medal in Cagliari, she will be a big threat to Casillas Garcia and the coveted 10thplace in the Series.
You can see the rest of the women’s WTCS rankings here and let us know in the comments below where you think everyone will finish.
