Two contrasting races were on offer at WTCS Yokohama. Whereas a breakaway unfolded in the women’s event, the men’s race resulted in a massive front group and a running race.
Across all three disciplines there was plenty to unpack so without further ado let’s dive into the stats.
The Swims
Women
The telltale sign of the breakaway in the women’s race can be seen in the above swim distribution. The density of athletes exiting the water rises a little after the first athletes exited, but then plunges just before the 20 second mark. That small dip represents approximately a 5 second window in which the cut-off for the breakaway formed.
Georgia Taylor-Brown fell on the wrong side of the dip at the 15-20 second mark and in doing so missed the front pack. Given her run split, she probably could have won the race had she made the front group, although Sophie Coldwell likely had more to give at the finish.
Such was the pace of the swim, the athletes were really stretched in a line. The biggest group of swimmers did not finish until over a minute after the swim leader (Maya Kingma).
The swim distribution, then, highlights the high pace of the swim and the crucial point from which the breakaway could be joined.
Men
The men’s swim was a very different story. With the peak concentration of athletes exiting around 15 seconds behind the swim leader (Mark Devay), there was no realistic shot of a breakaway.
Given the concentration of athletes, it is fair to say that the swim was a little slow. At WTCS Abu Dhabi 2022, the peak concentration of men exited over 40 seconds behind the swim leader which enabled the breakaway. That indicates that the pace was much higher in the water which stretched the field.
For breakaways to succeed in the men’s race, then, a more aggressive approach will be necessary in the swim.
The Bikes
Women
One of the most interesting aspects of the bike laps was how the rain affected the speed of the race. With each lap, almost the entire field progressively slowed, with lap 8 being the slowest.
Another noteworthy point occurred on lap 3. After hovering at the back of the pack, Taylor Knibb launched a huge attack to try to escape off the front. Some tireless work from the group, and especially by Maya Kingma, prevented her from doing so. Indeed you can see how even Sophie Coldwell lost a couple of seconds to Knibb on the third lap.
The bike laps also show a classic psychological trait of breakaways. It is common for breakaways to gain time and for the chase to lose heart in the second half of races. In Yokohama, the Miriam Casillas Garcia group (the third pack on the road) was as fast as the lead group for the first 2 laps. Thereafter, they lost time on every lap.
Crashes and wet conditions were a factor. However it is also the case that the breakaway knows they always have to work at their limit to stay clear. By contrast, some chase packs can lose heart and settle in to prepare for a run to improve their position. It can happen to all athletes, even subconsciously, and is more a point of psychology than one of “effort”.
The above bubble plot shows how the front group extended their lead with every lap.
Given how close the two chase packs were on lap 5, it was a little surprising that they did not come together. This may have been caused by a combination of the weather and the third pack starting to turn its attention to the run.
Men
One thing that stands out from the men’s bike laps is how fast Kristian Blummenfelt rode to bridge to the front. On the fourth lap, he was essentially the fastest man on the course which bodes well for his season.
Another key point is how much faster Hayden Wilde was on the first lap than Leo Bergere. While Bergere swam faster and earned a small gap over Wilde, he was not able to press his advantage home.
Instead, Wilde had a masterful first lap on the bike to put himself in the front pack. That crucial lap was vital in setting himself up for the win.
The Runs
Women
Georgia Taylor-Brown came flying out of T2 to chase down the leaders on the run. Her first lap of the run was the quickest of the race. Even though Sophie Coldwell had a similarly fast start to the run, she could not match Taylor-Brown’s speed.
However, Coldwell’s second lap was really where she cemented her victory. At that point, she was the fastest runner on the course and she broke the resistance of those behind her. As a result, the second half of the run was largely a procession for her.
You can also see how Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal rocketed through the remnants of the lead group on lap 3. Tactically, her move came at the perfect moment and showed how her timing of her effort was spot on.
Men
It looked so promising for Morgan Pearson at the start of the run. He cruised out of T2 and coasted towards the leaders with apparent ease. Over the course of the first lap, he was the fastest runner of the race by a small margin and looked as if he would fight Wilde and Bergere for the win.
A cramp, however, put paid to that and forced him to stop on the second lap. When struck down like that a lot of athletes would have stopped. It was therefore impressive how Pearson pushed himself to at least finish even though his race was all but over.
When it comes to the leaders, it is important to note that Wilde did not attack Bergere; rather Bergere slipped off the pace. During the race, it was not discernible from Wilde’s gait that he had upped his pace when Bergere dropped back. This seems to be displayed in the lap times too.
The reality was that Wilde was able to hold an exceptional tempo rather than launch a specific attack. Perhaps wearing his watch was an important factor in being able to pace his run with such precision.
After a difficult second and third lap, Bergere recovered at the end but did not quite have the sprint to take a medal. The fastest run of the day went to Vasco Vilaca. He meted out his effort excellently and split his laps tightly.
Finally, you can see how Wilde’s celebrations at the finish slowed him considerably. If he is taking suggestions for his next finish line celebration, maybe a moonwalk over the line will be on the cards.
