In the absence of the race winner from the first WTCS event of the season, Alex Yee, there will be a new Series leader come the end of the day in Yokohama.
Without Yee, there are two obvious candidates for the win in Japan.
Last year’s medallists, Hayden Wilde and Leo Bergere, will arrive on form. Wilde has a win at the New Plymouth World Cup to his name at which his running was utterly dominant. Bergere, meanwhile, has already earned a victory at the 70.3 distance. With Yokohama representing the first Olympic distance race of the Series, perhaps Bergere stepping down a distance will pay off.
Then again, speed is still the name of the game in short distance triathlon so Wilde stepping up from a Sprint distance win may prove like the better preparation.
Another factor to consider is Wilde’s recent outing at the Ultimate Athlete in New Zealand. The day out was more taxing than it appeared, although he has two weeks to recover. It is not a question of Wilde physically recovering; that much can be taken for granted. Instead the only small doubt will be whether the exertions of the Ultimate Athlete will affect his pre-race preparations, such as feel for the water in the pool.
Once again, the swim has to be highlighted as a key battleground in the race as the breakaway factor will come into play, particularly with the French looking to push the pace. Wilde’s swim has been looking better this year and showed signs of growth in New Plymouth. However we need a little more proof before we predict he will be in the front pack.
Even if Bergere does not generate the lead he needs in the water, he showed in Abu Dhabi that he is more than capable of riding away from the field. With the right companions, he could seize control of the race with a sudden attack at any moment.
Wilde is the better runner on paper but it should not be forgotten that Bergere clocked one of the fastest run splits ever in Yokohama last year. He will probably need a gap over Wilde in T2, for sure, but it will not have to be particularly big for Bergere to win.
Both men have the tools to win the race. With Bergere being the only one of the two to have won over the Olympic distance (at any international level, not just in the WTCS), it feels like he might have the edge.
While Bergere and Wilde are currently ahead of the chase, there are plenty of other contenders to note.
Although Vincent Luis has dropped out, Dorian Coninx will still figure. Without Luis, it could fall upon Coninx’s shoulders to lead out the swim, something he is more than capable of doing.
Coninx’s running has looked great all winter with multiple strong cross country performances. Throughout the race, then, he will likely be a factor.
Two years ago, Morgan Pearson had a breakout performance and won his first WTCS medal. Sickness prevented him from racing in Abu Dhabi so we have not seen what he has in store this season. Given how he finished 2022 and his priors at Yokohama, there is good reason to be excited about his chances.
If the race comes down to a running showdown, Pearson can best Wilde and Bergere in a head-to-head. In 2021, he relied on his run to catapult himself through the field and onto the podium. That approach might not work this time so his swim and bike will have to be up to scratch. Without a race under his belt in 2023, it is hard to predict where those first two disciplines will stand.
As a result, while Pearson should certainly challenge for a medal, it may be premature to put him in discussions for the win.
In a similar vein, we come to Jelle Geens and Kristian Blummenfelt. Both medalled in Yokohama in 2021, with Blummenfelt winning the race. Like Pearson, Geens relied upon a superior run to make up places and jump into 2nd place. Blummenfelt, by contrast, had one of the stronger swims of his career and pushed into the front pack out of T1.
Geens was not at his best in Abu Dhabi in March. He only managed 37th place that day. At his best, though, he is a proven quantity and can be expected to bounce back. At this moment in time, it seems safe to bracket him with Pearson as a medal contender but not a favourite to win given the question mark hovering over his swim.
Blummenfelt is a tricky one to gauge. He has not competed in a short distance race this year. His speed might therefore not be where he would hope. He has also just competed in a long distance race less than a week out from Yokohama. No athlete is the same, naturally, but more often than not speed comes around with rest. With less than a week to recover, Blummenfelt will probably be fit but not at his fastest in Japan.
That being said, his last two outings in the country in 2021 yielded two gold medals. Maybe there is something in the water. Maybe he has something special in store. Seeing is believing, though, and right now it is hard to believe he will be fresh enough to match the speed of the likes of Bergere and Wilde.
When it comes to the dark horses for the win, it is hard to look beyond the Australians. On the one hand there are the established claims of Jacob Birtwhistle and Matthew Hauser.
Birtwhistle has had the most illustrious WTCS career of any Australian man in the past decade while Hauser is a coming force. He raced well in Yokohama last year and has since won a first medal in the Series. On their day, they have the ability to rival the men listed so far. The key difference is, though, their days can be a little more hit-and-miss than the others.
On the other hand, there are a couple of rising Australians to track. Luke Willian is a World Cup winner from 2017 and 2019 and could be the next Australian to make the step up to the top level of the Series. He is entering a phase in which he has gained plenty of experience and should be closing in on his physical peak.
The next couple of years could see the best of Willian and that could all start this weekend.
Similarly, Callum Mcclusky is a man on the rise. He has not yet demonstrated his abilities over the Olympic distance, but his running speed over the Sprint distance this year has been undeniable. If he can navigate the first two disciplines, he could follow in the footsteps of Pearson and Geens and roar through the field on the run.
TriStats Predictions
This race could well be won before the athletes leave T2. If Bergere has a gap of around 20 seconds over Wilde, something he is more than capable of achieving, he probably wins. By contrast if Wilde can put himself in the lead pack or at least within 20 seconds, something he too can accomplish, he wins. You could flip a coin but right now we will go with the world champion for the win.
- Leo Bergere
- Hayden Wilde
- Morgan Pearson
- Dorian Coninx
- Jelle Geens
