Looking back to the last Olympic year, in an admittedly pandemic-hit 2021, the first two rounds of the WTCS season were won by first-time winners. Taylor Knibb powered to the gold in Yokohama while Maya Kingma, having medalled in Yokohama, went on to win WTCS Leeds. While the two races are too small a sample size to derive any meaningful conclusions, maybe there is something to the trend of new faces making steps forward in the build-up to the Games.
One such athlete that could repeat history at WTCS Yokohama this weekend is Emma Lombardi. The French athlete will be wearing number 1 and enters as a triple WTCS medallist. More than most, Lombardi seems primed to take a maiden win in the Series. She dropped a very impressive 10km performance earlier in the year and opened her triathlon campaign with a win at the Melilla European Cup, beating WTCS medallists Sophie Coldwell and Kate Waugh.
Yokohama was also the site of a happy WTCS debut for Lombardi as she finished 4th back in 2022. Despite having been at the sharp end of races for a couple of years, she is still developing as an athlete. To underline how young she is, she is still eligible for the U23 category this season. If anyone is going to break through this weekend and claim a first win, then, chances are it will be the French athlete.
Equally, a similar breakout performance could be in store for Lombardi’s teammate, Leonie Periault. A silver medallist in Yokohama in 2022, Periault has no shortage of running speed. A top-6 finish will be required to rubber-stamp her ticket to a home Olympics this summer and, having medalled in every WTCS calendar year since 2021, she might hit that standard in style.
Having won in 2021, Knibb will also be back in Yokohama. She claimed the bronze medal at the race last year and so has a strong record at the venue. Knibb has already qualified for the American Olympic team and so will be unaffected by the domestic scramble around her for the remaining slots. Moreover, her focus could be entirely on the summer. Still, with her abilities, it would be no surprise to see her light up the event and throw down an early marker ahead of Paris. Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal, the silver medallist at the race from 2023, likewise returns and could be in the mix.
Looking at the start list, there is only one WTCS race winner from 2022 or 2023 present. This partly helps to reiterate why a new winner could be on the cards. At the same time, the sole winner is Flora Duffy who could make a statement on her long-awaited return to the sport.
At her best, Duffy would be a leading candidate for the win. Based on 2022 form, she would certainly be the favourite. However, having not raced in 18 months, it is too hard to gauge where she will be physically; depending on where she is at, she might not finish if she saves herself for the summer. As much as Duffy could figure, she is simply too much of an unknown quantity right now.
Meanwhile, Kate Waugh will push to build upon her maiden WTCS medal from Pontevedra. Waugh will face a different kind of pressure on her shoulders as she enters as WTCS race as the senior Brit for the first time (or at least the Brit expected to record the best finish). Over the course of last season, Waugh showed continual improvement and she ran Lombardi close in Melilla. A second medal could therefore be in store. The British team will have threats beyond Waugh and Sian Rainsley’s World Cup win in Hong Kong makes her hard to ignore. Waugh, though, stands out as the leading name.
In every year since 2017, Yokohama has seen a breakaway in the women’s race. With Bianca Seregni, Kingma, Jolien Vermeylen and Vittoria Lopes in the field, there is potential for a similar small pack to escape off the front. This could play into the hands of Lombardi, Knibb and Taylor Spivey. Indeed, it may be Spivey’s ticket to the podium (and onto the American Olympic team) as the same approach worked for her in 2023, yielding two WTCS medals.
Whether in a breakaway or running race, though, Lombardi looks like the athlete to beat.
TriStats Predictions
- Emma Lombardi
- Taylor Knibb
- Taylor Spivey
- Kate Waugh
- Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal
