The final men’s New Flag slot for the Paris Olympic Games does not currently have an eligible candidate.
As things stand, Oceania does not have a male athlete (not from Australia or New Zealand who are all but guaranteed qualifiers) in side the top-180 of the world rankings.
The crucial number is 841 points (rounded to the nearest integer) to take 180th in the rankings. The closest man from Oceania is Benjamin Zorgnotti of Tahiti. With 765 points, Zorgnotti finds himself 192nd in the world.
Strong performances at the 2023 Oceania Championships over the Olympic and Sprint distances have put Zorgnotti in a good place. If he is to make the jump into New Flag eligibility, he will need a couple of further good performances.
Previous Continental Cup medals in 2022 at the Accra African Cup, Sharm El Sheikh African Cup and La Paz Americas Cup show that he is capable of producing the results he needs. Zorgnotti’s challenge now, though, is to log similar results with time running out.
With no other eligible Oceania man inside the top-500 of the world rankings, it is Zorgnotti or bust when it comes to the continent’s New Flag hopes.
Should Zorgnotti miss out on the top-180, the New Flag slot will roll back onto the Olympic qualification rankings. As per the standard quota rules, it cannot go to a country that has already hit its limit of eligible athletes.
As a result, Gaspar Riveros would be in line to benefit from the Oceania New Flag. The athlete from Chile is ranked 80th in the Olympic rankings with 1495 points. With only Diego Moya ahead of him when it comes to his compatriots, Riveros would be the second Chilean athlete and therefore fulfil the available quota.
Right behind Riveros is Gregor Payet of Luxembourg in 85th place. With 1308 points, Payet is ironically closer to taking the Oceania New Flag slot than he is the European New Flag slot.
The man currently due to earn the European New Flag, Felix Duchampt, is actually a couple of places behind Payet in the Olympic rankings. Duchampt stands in 91st place with 1210 points. So long as he holds on to his European New Flag position, though, his Olympic ranking will bear little relevance.
Panagiotis Bitados of Greece is ranked 93rd in the Olympic rankings yet is also in with a chance of claiming the European New Flag slot. He has 1182 points to his name and is rising faster than anyone else in contention having only made his international debut at the start of 2023.
Of course, there are also non-European chasers behind Riveros.
Badr Siwane of Morocco is 100th in the Olympic qualification rankings with 1004 points. Just as Riveros would be the second Chilean man to qualify, Siwane would be the second Moroccan athlete after Jawad Abdelmoula, thereby completing his country’s maximum quota.
When it comes to the Oceania New Flag, then, several athletes will be watching Benjamin Zorgnotti very closely over the coming months. In turn, those athletes will push all the way until the qualification deadline to squeeze out every point possible towards their ranking.
Nice reporting and analysis of the New Flag qualification pathway. There may need to be clarification on whether Tahiti (French Polynesia) can qualify an Olympic spot as they currently may not have a recognized NOC independent of France. Zagnotti actually met the top-180 world ranking criteria earlier in the year but wasn’t included on the simulation.
Looking forward to the women’s New Flag analysis and also if you might be taking a look at the Tripartite Commission Invitation (aka Universality) possibilities, which is almost an extension of New Flag, albeit requiring qualifying countries to nominate qualifying athletes (as few as there may be).