In football, there are some players you know precisely what they are going to do before they do it.
A classic example is Arjen Robben, a Dutch player formerly of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Chelsea. To all intents and purposes, Robben could only do anything with his left foot. At every opportunity, then, he would cut inside to shoot on his left foot. All any defender had to do was force Robben onto his right and the threat was (in exaggerated terms) neutralised.
The problem was that even though defenders knew what Robben was going to do, stopping it was another matter altogether.
At the Chengdu World Cup, the women’s race will offer a triathlon equivalent to Robben.
Bianca Seregni is back in China after her win at the Weihai World Cup in August. In Weihai, she was the fastest swimmer and the fastest runner. It is the first of those two disciplines that is the key.
Everyone in the field knows what will happen in Chengdu. Seregni will push the pace in the water and put most of the field on the back foot. Much like Robben’s left foot in football, a dominant swim has become her calling card. Most significantly, the field has precious few ways to stop her.
Short of swim behaviour penalties, there is not a lot the field can do. As a result, the early stages of the race will be at Seregni’s mercy.
What happens afterwards, though, is very much up in the air.
With less than thirty-five women starting, Chengdu has a very small field for a World Cup and the Seregni factor means an initial breakaway is likely. Throw in the likes of Zsanett Kuttor-Bragmayer and Yifan Yang, a recent Asian Games medallist, and there are several athletes that could support Seregni in a long-range break attempt.
If the field comes back together, Seregni should still be able to trust her running. However, given the size of the field, the situation seems ripe for a breakaway.
Although Seregni is likely to shape how the race unfolds, there are nevertheless multiple women that could fight for a place on the podium.
Ilaria Zane also medalled in Weihai and could challenge her compatriot once more. Romana Gajdošová also won a maiden World Cup medal in Yeongdo two months ago.
Niina Kishimoto has enjoyed a string of Asia Cup success this season while Natalie Van Coevorden is a tried and trusted veteran and will be able to deal with pretty much anything thrown at her in Chengdu.
Then there is Claire Michel. The Belgian athlete is in good form and will embark on a three stop World Cup swing in Asia. After finishing 11th at WTCS Pontevedra and 6th at the World Cup in Tangier, she has recent high finishes to her name. Her bold showing in the Mixed Team Relay in Paris also highlighted how tenaciously she can fight for a medal when it is on the line.
Perhaps more than anyone, Michel will be the athlete to take on Seregni.
Finally, we come to Anahi Alvarez Corral. The young Mexican athlete was the fastest female runner in Pontevedra and is a superb talent. She won the Huatulco World Cup in June.
However, with several fast swimmers, led by Seregni, Alvarez could struggle to be within striking distance out of T2. This has been a challenge for her, such as at the Americas Championships in Veracruz. Her run will always make her an outside threat for the podium. Yet in light of the swimming speed stacked against her and the size of the field, she may be out of the race before it really gets going.
TriStats Predictions
- Bianca Seregni
- Claire Michel
- Ilaria Zane
- Niina Kishimoto
- Natalie Van Coevorden
