For the last time in the 2023, the athletes will line up to contest the WTCS. Ahead of the conclusion of the season, we are taking a look at the performances of each starting athlete over the Olympic distance in 2022 and 2023.
In the below cheat sheets, we take a number of WTCS data points to determine a base line for each individual. To start with, we look at their average time behind the fastest swimmer as well as their average position out of the water. This should offer an indicator for how close they can be expected to be to the leaders into T1.
We then include the same information on the run. When it comes to the run, we also include the fastest run split of the past two seasons. Although courses vary so the raw times can be taken with a pinch of salt, the times nonetheless provide an insight into what the various athletes can produce.
In the event that an athlete did not compete over the Olympic distance in the Series in 2022 or 2023, their profile will not have any stats.
The men’s race will be on Saturday at 17:20 (CEST) while the women’s race will be on Sunday at 16:45 (CEST).
Men
Only three men have started at all seven Olympic distance WTCS races since the start of 2022 (Yokohama, Cagliari, Bermuda, Abu Dhabi; Yokohama, Cagliari, Paris). They are Jonas Schomburg, Vetle Bergsvik Thorn and Michele Sarzilla.
One thing that jumps out from the men’s cheat sheet is the speed of the men’s swim since the start of 2022. Rather than the raw speed, the breadth of the speed is what stands out.
Only two men on the start list have lost on average more than a minute in the water. In several instances, those that lose 45 seconds or more have found they can make it up as they can regroup in a substantial pack.
Half of the field have emerged between 10 and 30 seconds behind the fastest swimmer on average. More often than not, the best swimmers may have generated a small break yet then find themselves with the best part of half the field only 20 seconds in arrears.
Breakaways can stick in the men’s field. WTCS Bermuda and WTCS Abu Dhabi last year showed that. However if so many of the men are able to withstand the speeds at the front of the race, then the leaders will have to try something even more aggressive.
Another interesting point is how deep the run has become. The ability to run a 29 minute 10km is now commonplace in the men’s WTCS. Only three men in the top-20 of the start list have not broken that barrier in 2022 or 2023, and two of them missed it by less than 10 seconds.
However, at the front of the race Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde have moved the goalposts by making 28 minute speeds a reality. Before the measurement police arrive: yes, you can quibble about the precision of how the course is measured. Everyone is running on the same course, though. No one runs purely for a 10km personal best in a triathlon anyway (for example, Wilde’s celebrations in Yokohama and Yee’s in Paris slowed them considerably).
The point is, if two athletes have 28 minute speed and the next best are stuck in 29 minute territory, it is a simple equation that the faster runners will win more often than not.
So long as Yee and Wilde maintain their form, the rest of the field will have to find a way to get under the 29 minute mark in the run.
Women
A group of seven women have raced at all seven Olympic distance WTCS stops in 2022 and 2023. The frequent flyers are Taylor Spivey, Miriam Casillas Garcia, Natalie Van Coevorden, Maya Kingma and Valerie Barthelemy.
When looking at the women’s cheat sheet, the most remarkable statistic is that, across 2022 and 2023, only three women have conceded on average less than 60 seconds to the fastest runner.
Cassandre Beaugrand has lost 29 seconds on average. She has regularly been the best runner in 2023, although she was 10 seconds slower than Beth Potter at the Paris Test Event. Still, the times the likes of Flora Duffy out-ran her in 2022 have to be factored in.
Nina Eim has lost 36 seconds to the fastest runner on average while Emma Lombardi has lost 41 seconds.
Of course, this metric rewards consistency more than raw speed so the inclusion of the best raw splits helps to balance that. On that front, Beaugrand is again the top performer. Only four other women have best splits in the 32 minute zone (Potter, Lombardi, Jeanne Lehair and Leonie Periault).
Whether a 32 minute split for a woman translates to a 28 or 29 minute split for a man is up for debate. What is interesting, though, is how the distribution of top splits is slightly different across the two genders. Whereas two men operate in the 28 minute region with over a dozen chasing in 29 minute territory, five women lead the way in the 32 minute zone.
The swim also has some interesting details to unpack.
In terms of consistency, Summer Rappaport has been the best swimmer over 1500m for the past two seasons. She has recorded an average position of 2.2 and an average deficit of 1 second.
Even regular leaders, Vittoria Lopes and Bianca Seregni cannot match that. Lopes has logged an average position of 2.6 and an average deficit of 4 seconds. Seregni’s equivalent numbers stand at 6th and 4 seconds.
Lopes and Seregni have certainly dropped some eye-popping splits. Throughout it all, though, Rappaport has been the most consistent. Expect more of the same from her this weekend.
In addition, Beaugrand is one of the best swimmers with an average position of 5th and an average deficit of 9 seconds.
The data, however, cannot tell us everything.
There are some athletes whose levels have not been fully represented in the numbers. To that end, two dark horses that feel a little overlooked by the numbers are Katie Zaferes and Annika Koch. Both have started only two Olympic distance WTCS races in the period and have been flagged for different reasons
Zaferes is highlighted because of where she has been. Being an Olympic medallist and former world champion on a post-natal return, she is likely to continue her rise to her former levels. Moreover, Koch is mentioned for her recent form. So dramatic has her rise been since the summer, the results of hitherto feel a little out of date.
Further athletes also only have two races to their name. On balance, though, Zaferes and Koch appear to be two of the likeliest candidates to out-perform the limited data to their name.
