On the surface, the women’s WTCS Final in Pontevedra looks to be a little more clear-cut than the men’s race.
Cassandre Beaugrand leads Beth Potter by 32 points in the standings and as such will wear number 1. Moreover, she has the fastest run split of the year, has been (on average) the fastest runner across the Series, has a better previous WTCS Final result than Potter and leads the last five head-to-heads with her British rival.
By most metrics, Beaugrand represents a formidable opponent.
Nevertheless, Potter may actually arrive with the upper hand. There is one big reason for Potter to be confident. In the previous outing at the Paris Test Event, she beat Beaugrand. More than that, she out- duelled the French woman on the run, beating her at her greatest strength.
In addition, Potter is the only one of the pair to have won a WTCS race over the Olympic distance. Beaugrand’s silver medal in Paris was her first medal over the format at the highest level.
With three wins in the Series this season, Potter presents a strong case for having been the most consistent athlete. The vagaries of the scoring system that reward Olympic distance races more than Sprint distance races mean that Beaugrand finds herself ahead. Had all races been scored equally, though, Potter would be the Series leader.
Then there is the extra carrot. Beaugrand has essentially wrapped up Olympic selection for France. She will need to prove her fitness in 2024 at a WTCS race, but to all intents and purposes her slot is safe. Conversely, Potter needs a medal in Pontevedra to put herself on the British Olympic team.
That extra dimension to Potter’s race might just help her dig that bit deeper.
It is a real challenge to separate them at this stage and either one could win in Pontevedra and take the world title. Indeed, it is hard to see anyone beating them. Having won more races this year as well as the most recent clash, Potter may ever so slightly be the favourite.
However, neither have been flawless this year. Potter had an off-day in Cagliari, finishing 6th. Most significantly, Beaugrand out-ran her to take 4th place. Likewise, while Potter won in Abu Dhabi in the season opener, Beaugrand finished 6th.
Cagliari in particular showed that both can sometimes be caught out by a breakaway. Should that happen in Pontevedra, there are several women positioned to step forward and take the win.
Emma Lombardi is ranked 3rd in the Series and has never won a WTCS race. Being such a young athlete, it is a matter of time before she does. She was the World U23 champion in 2021 and a win at the top level feels like it is around the corner.
One of Lombardi’s best results this year was in Cagliari where she made the breakaway and earned the silver medal. A repeat of such a performance could see her stun Beaugrand and Potter.
Lombardi’s teammate, Leonie Periault, also does not have a WTCS win on her resume but often steps up at WTCS Finals. In 2021 she finished 2nd and last year she finished 5th. On her day, she could spring an upset.
Then there is the Gwen Jorgensen hype train. Although the hype is based purely on her recent World Cup form, it might not be outlandish to suggest she could be a challenger. Her running is clearly firing and if she arrives in T2 with the leaders she will fight for a medal.
If we are talking form, can we ignore Annika Koch?
Since achieving a personal best finish at WTCS Hamburg Koch has been on rise. She won a medal at WTCS Sunderland and followed that with wins in the Bundesliga and the Yeongdo World Cup. Like Potter (and others), she will be further incentivised by the possibility of securing an Olympic place. She will be gunning for the final German slot and, in gambling terms, has a hot hand.
Furthermore, Laura Lindemann finished 3rd in Paris and appears to have cracked racing outside of Germany. Like Koch, she could be a contender.
Finally, after her marvellous win at WTCS Yokohama, most people would have been a little surprised if Sophie Coldwell had not been in the conversation for the world title. In reality, her summer did not quite come together, leaving her out of contention. Still, if things click for her as they did at the start of the season, she could blow the field away.
TriStats Predictions
A repeat of the Paris top-4 looks likely, with Koch potentially replacing the absent Taylor Knibb in 5th place.
- Beth Potter
- Cassandre Beaugrand
- Laura Lindemann
- Emma Lombardi
- Annika Koch
