When considering the men’s race at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra, it is helping to start with the obvious.
The favourites to take the win and the world title are Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde. Both have multiple WTCS wins to their name this season and have been outstanding. Between them, they have won the three Olympic distance races on offer in the Series (Yee took Cagliari and Paris while Wilde won in Yokohama) and, as Olympic medallists, they have shown an ability to step up at the big moments.
Even if they have yet to win a WTCS Final medal, there is a strong likelihood that they put that right this weekend.
Moreover, after the dramatic twist at the end of the 2022 season, they will want to expunge bad memories of the last Final with a win. The question to ask, however, is how much will last season’s denouement hang over the race?
As much as Yee and Wilde will look to put things right this time around, there may be a little gnawing doubt at the back of their mind. It all went wrong once. Maybe it can happen again. Should a breakaway also get away, suddenly the image could look all too familiar.
To deprive the two leading men of the world title, someone will have to repeat of what happened in Abu Dhabi last November to the letter. Yee showed in Paris that, save for maybe Wilde, no one will realistically beat him in a 10km run.
As a result, a breakaway is imperative.
As it happens, the three men chasing Yee and Wilde can exploit that strategy. Vasco Vilaca, Leo Bergere and Dorian Coninx could each be in a better position if they want to win the Series. However, they still have a shot. One of them will basically have to win the race if they are to claim the title.
All of them have the skillset to do so. More specifically, all can exploit a breakaway.
Bergere is the most obvious danger having been the one to use the strategy to perfection last season. He managed to swoop to the world title with a win in Abu Dhabi last year and knows what he has to do. Perhaps history will repeat itself. His compatriot, Coninx, is also a fantastic swimmer. On his day, he could swim into a small front pack.
One big advantage Bergere and Coninx will have is Pierre Le Corre. The WTCS Sunderland winner is not in a position to compete for the world title as he is a race short in his quota. His racing nous and power on the bike will likely be essential for any breakaway to succeed.
On balance, the French duo are slightly better swimmers than Vilaca. Nevertheless, the Portuguese athlete proved at WTCS Bermuda in 2022 that he can put himself into a breakaway.
Should any of the three escape, attention will then turn to the size of the gap. A 30 second advantage would be tight but it could be enough to hold off Yee and Wilde.
Then there are athletes that could pose a different threat. Foremost among them is a man that is slowly becoming the resident WTCS Final specialist, Morgan Pearson.
Like Mariah Carey before Christmas, he has starting to emerge at his time of year. Last year, he rocked up at the Viña del Mar World Cup and ripped a rapid run split despite finishing way down the field. Then he stepped up in Abu Dhabi to win a brilliant silver medal.
This year, he came 6th at the Paris Test Event having not made the original start list. Then he won the Karlovy Vary World Cup in a spellbinding display. His form is therefore bubbling nicely ahead of the Final.
It would also be remiss to forget the other WTCS winner from 2023, Matthew Hauser. The Australian won in Montreal, however his form is a little uncertain after the COVID positive that ruled him out of the Test Event.
Kristian Blummenfelt won WTCS Finals in 2019 and 2021, making him perhaps even more of a Final specialist than Pearson. On the other hand, his form this year does not indicate he will win. The main issue is that Blummenfelt can neither out-swim Yee or Wilde nor out-run them. Similarly, Jelle Geens is in a similar boat despite being a superb athlete.
Like Blummenfelt, he cannot be counted upon to make a breakaway. Still, he beat Yee and Wilde on the run in 2022 to claim 3rd place and so could find himself in the mix this time.
TriStats Predictions
Forget the predictable, we’re here for the drama. Therefore our predictions are simple.
Vilaca for the win, Pearson to throw down again, Wilde to beat Yee and the neither of the favourites to win the world title: that sounds like a good bet.
- Vasco Vilaca
- Morgan Pearson
- Hayden Wilde
- Alex Yee
- Leo Bergere
