At the third Olympic distance World Cup in three weekends, there may be some tired bodies that toe the start line in Karlovy Vary.
A leading candidate for the win in the Czech Republic among the near-exhausted will be Lasse Nygaard Priester. The German athlete finished 3rd at the World Cup in Weihai and then improved that to 2nd at the World Cup in Valencia. A former winner in Karlovy Vary, Priester knows the course and has shown he can succeed at it.
He is clearly in form and could be at the front of the race throughout. Indeed, he may just channel his inner Matthew McElroy; in 2022, McElroy also finished 3rd, 2nd and 1st in consecutive World Cups.
Alternatively, a third Olympic distance race catch up with Priester. Over the course of his career, injuries have been a problem and he has not always been the most robust athlete. So long as he can recover, though, he should be highly competitive.
Karlovy Vary is a course that offers something to everyone. To that end, it will be worth keeping tabs on Márk Dévay. The Hungarian did not get away in Valencia after leading the swim and then pushing onwards on the bike with Connor Bentley. However, Valencia is flat and not a major breakaway course. Some seconds can be bought here and there but for the most part it is runner’s territory.
By contrast, Karlovy Vary will be right up Dévay’s street.
He could work with someone like Nicolò Strada or Takumi Hojo in the swim and early on the bike to establish a lead. Should a small group escape onto the climbs, anything could happen.
Hojo himself won the World Cup in Yeongdo recently and so arrives in good form. A classy runner, he could threaten the podium no matter how the race unfolds. If he gets away in a breakaway, it will spell danger to the rest of the field.
Hojo’s compatriot Kyotaro Yoshikawa should also enjoy the hills. Yoshikawa is a superb cyclist and could shape the race. If he is in a breakaway, the group will have a great chance of staying away. On the flip side, if Yoshikawa is in the chase he could do a lot of damage to the hopes of the leaders. With his strength, there is also a chance that Yoshikawa launches a bold solo attack.
On the note of powerful cyclists, Casper Stornes will be racing. The Norwegian was quietly good on his way to 6th place in Valencia. Like Dévay, he should get more joy out of the Karlovy Vary course and a medal will be on his radar.
In addition, look for athletes like Tjebbe Kaindl and Valentin Wernz to have good races. Both can thrive on the bike but also are rounded enough to succeed in multiple scenarios.
As with all courses, however, the fastest runners will likely have a major hand in determining the outcome of the race. To that end, it is hard to look beyond Max Studer and Morgan Pearson.
Both are among the most unpredictable triathletes around. Since injury troubles dogged his 2022 season, consistency has been hard to come by for Pearson. Yet he is such a good runner and his success at the Paris Test Event showed he is getting back to his best. If he is on in Karlovy Vary, he could win.
Studer is similar. Although his racing habits appear a little random to those outside his circle, he has the ability across the board to put himself in the hunt for gold.
He has had a great WTCS season and will have no problems with the difficulty of the course. His silver medal at the Engadiner Sommerlauf demonstrated that difficult courses are no issue for him.
Having asserted their form lately, Pearson and Studer can be expected to feature near the front of the race. In Karlovy Vary, though, the final say may just lie with the hills.
TriStats Predictions
- Max Studer
- Takumi Hojo
- Morgan Pearson
- Lasse Nygaard Priester
- Casper Stornes
