Taylor Knibb is one of the best triathletes in the world. At this point in time, that feels like a fairly safe assertion to make.
She is an Olympic medallist (on the Mixed Team Relay) from Tokyo 2021. She has won seven WTCS medals, of which two have been gold. Throw in her World Ironman 70.3 Championship titles and litany of wins in various long distance events and it is clear that Knibb a force to be reckoned with.
As a Junior, Knibb’s talent was already evident. Alongside winning the World Junior title in 2016 and 2017, she became the youngest ever medallist in the WTCS in 2017. In 2018, she then added the World U23 title for good measure.
Already, Knibb has enjoyed a career of almost dream-like success. At 25 years old, the American has plenty of time to build a dynasty in triathlon. Yet, at the same time, she appears to be at a juncture.
Knibb has opted out of the WTCS Final in Pontevedra and, having qualified through her World 70.3 title, there is a chance she takes on the Ironman World Championships instead. Having not raced a full quota of races in the WTCS, she was not in a position to win the Series.
On that front, there is a question to ask. With her focus spread across long distance events (plus cycling), will she ever win a WTCS crown? (You can have your say in the poll at the end of this article).
Given her talent and evident work ethic, it would seem that she has the capacity to do so.
Knibb is perhaps the best cyclist in the women’s field. A case could be made for other athletes, such as Flora Duffy, although Knibb is possibly the preeminent force on two wheels. She is also a classy swimmer. Sometimes, such as at the Paris Olympic Test Event, she can lose position in the water but for the most part she is one of the best in the field. Upon the infrequent occasions she loses time in the swim, she more than makes up for it on the bike.
Her run has often been considered her relative weakness. Even then, she has plenty of speed. At the Paris Olympic Test Event, where she finished 5th, she had the third fastest run split and a slow T2 ultimately cost her a medal.
There is every possibility that Knibb matures into a new version of Flora Duffy, able to dominate and win races through all three disciplines.
Her winning habit at long distance is also something she can translate to short distance. The ability to close out races and withstand the mental challenges of success is no mean feat. Knibb, though, has already taken it in her stride.
On the other hand, there are a couple of factors that could prevent Knibb from winning a WTCS title.
An obvious risk is that she will be spread too thin. With so many other commitments, there is a chance she never fully focuses on a WTCS campaign.
There is plenty of money to be made in long distance racing, more so than the WTCS at least. Given the brevity of most triathletes’ careers, it would be sensible for Knibb to maximise her earning potential.
An argument can also be made that the middle distance in particular, suits her racing style best. It seems she is fairly indestructible on the bike at that difference and cannot be bested in a non-drafting format. By contrast, the drafting nature of the WTCS can often negate some of her cycling advantage. With the different demands, it may be harder for her to translate her long course success.
Then there is the Sprint question.
Knibb can succeed in the shorter races and she has previously. She medalled in the Super Sprint format at WTCS Montreal in 2021, although the multi-round nature of that event made it more endurance-based than speed-based.
The hesitation, though, comes over her record over the Sprint distance. At no stage in her career thus far has Knibb displayed the kind of raw 5km speed to win over the Sprint distance. Her maiden WTCS medal as a Junior in 2017 remains her only Sprint distance WTCS medal. Aside from that, she has finished 5th twice at a Sprint WTCS race.
It is not a major problem, although it speaks to a point of weakness over the course of a WTCS season.
If she was to prioritise the WTCS, the likelihood is that she would improve her results. However, that is a projection of what she could do rather than what she has done. Such projections come with an element of doubt as we cannot be sure how many other racing commitments Knibb will have.
In addition, at the Olympic distance, Knibb has not yet been on the circuit for long enough to develop additional ways of winning.
Both of her Olympic distance WTCS wins came as a small breakaway (in a solo breakaway in Edmonton in 2021 and alongside Maya Kingma in Yokohama in 2021).
Two of her three silver medals came in similar circumstances. In Edmonton in 2017 she was in a two-woman breakaway with Flora Duffy and then held on. In Bermuda in 2022 she rode alone behind the two-woman breakaway of Duffy and Kingma.
When in a pack of three or more athletes in Sprint or Olympic races, Knibb has a best finish of 3rd, an outcome she has achieved once.
Again, it must be emphasised that Knibb is already operating at an extraordinary level. However, to win the WTCS, one must be able to win multiple races. Having learned the lessons of 2021, the field will not simply let Knibb ride away and she will need to add further strings to her bow.
Knibb’s challenge will also not be purely internal. There are a number of world class rivals that will stand in her way to any WTCS title.
Being a relative latecomer to the sport, Beth Potter could have a few more years at the top. Her win at the Paris Test Event was a clarion call to the field that she will be a contender for world titles and the Olympic gold going forward. As proven winner in breakaways and in running races, Potter has the upper hand over Knibb on the run at this stage.
Cassandre Beaugrand is a year older than Knibb but has a similar scope to improve. Whereas Knibb is the better cyclist, Beaugrand is arguably a better swimmer and, on balance, a better runner. The French athlete is certainly quicker over the shorter distances and will be an obvious obstacle to any world title attempt.
Georgia Taylor-Brown remains a supreme talent. Injury and form have cost her a shot at the title this year but she will no doubt return. Her compatriot, Sophie Coldwell, is another danger and won in Yokohama this year. Meanwhile, Emma Lombardi is younger than Knibb and is a proven threat for the podium. Like Beaugrand, she could be considered a better swimmer and runner than the American, although the difference is slim.
The sport is also growing at the Olympic level. Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal has been at the vanguard of Mexico’s rise and beat Knibb in Yokohama. Over the coming years, the WTCS should only get deeper as the sport grows.
Then there are the future stars that could come through.
All this is to say is that while Knibb’s path to gold medals at long distance races is fairly unencumbered, at the WTCS level she will have a constant array of challengers.
Almost counter-intuitively, a case could almost be made that Knibb is likelier to win Olympic gold than sustain a WTCS campaign over a full season. In a one-off race like the Olympics, she only needs an attack on the bike to work. Indeed, if the world title was decided on one day, Knibb would potentially be likelier to claim it. Managing a whole season, though, is a different demand.
Plenty of amazing athletes have never won a WTCS crown. The best point of comparison might be Nicola Spirig. Spirig won two Olympic medals but never a WTCS title and her dabbles in long distance are perhaps the closest template for Knibb.
With the case for and case against presented above, it is time for you to have your say in the below poll. Given Knibb’s ability and dazzling success over the years, it feels a safer choice to say that she will at some point win a WTCS crown. Still, given the reasons above, it is not far-fetched to say it might not happen.
