One of the most important aspects of the Paris Olympic Test Event was the opportunity to test the course ahead of next year’s Olympic Games. While WTCS points were on the line, as was an early chance to secure Olympic qualification for some, racing the course and getting a feel for it was the primary objective for most.
Given the purpose of the Test Event was to test the course, in this article we will dive into some of the details that emerged.
The field will break up in the swim
In both the men’s and women’s races, the fields were stretched a lot. Vincent Luis led the men’s field and Bianca Seregni was the quickest female swimmer. Both navigated the course well to earn small leads and create small gaps even among the top splits.
What is more interesting is what happened further down the field. At WTCS Yokohama six men swam over a minute slower than the fastest swimmer. At WTCS Cagliari, only one man did so. In Paris, twenty-one men fell over a minute behind Luis in the swim.
Compared to the other Olympic distance courses seen in the WTCS this season, the Paris swim posed a far greater challenge to those down the field.
Even if we look to last year’s WTCS Final, only eight men lost over a minute to the best swimmer.
The women’s race was a similar story. Thirty-four women were over a minute behind the leader, Seregni, heading into T1. That represents over half the athletes starting.
At the same time, it should be noted that twenty-five women lost over a minute in Yokohama and twelve did so in Cagliari. The women’s swim has therefore been a little more spread than the men’s this year.
Either way, the early indication is that the Paris swim will fracture the field to a much greater extent than normal.
To visualise how irregular the swims were, take a look at the time distribution graphs below.
In both the men’s and women’s races, the density of athletes exiting the water plummets in the middle of the field to essentially split the race in half.
Such drastic dips in the middle of the field have not been a particularly frequent occurrence in the WTCS this year.
The likely reason for this is the strength of the currents. The swim is faster heading out and then harder on the way back to the pontoon. Seregni and Summer Rappaport to a completely different line to Cassandre Beaugrand in the second lap of the women’s race as they sought the best current.
Some athletes also noted that getting around buoys was more difficult than usual.
The swim, then, could really shake up the race at the Olympic Games.
But the bike brought it back together
On the other hand, the men’s field almost entirely came back together on the bike. A front group of fifty-five men eventually formed which to all intents and purposes neutralised the race.
Looking to the Tour de France, from which parts of the course are borrowed, is instructive. The classic final day sprint stage rarely sees a successful breakaway along the Champs-Élysées. Even this year, when the likes of Tadej Pogačar tried to get away, the pack prevailed.
Of course, the Tour de France is a completely different matter and is not directly comparable. The riders are stronger, the field is bigger and the team element (particularly the service to the sprinters) reshapes the challenge. It would also be reductionist to blame a lack of a breakaway at the Test Event to the course.
Nevertheless, the indications of the Tour and the Test indicate that Paris may not be a course to reward breakaways. For all the time the men gained in the swim, it was soon whittled away.
Perhaps at the Games the front group will ride more aggressively to punish those that lose a minute in the water. Indeed, everything could change next year and a breakaway could work.
Based on the Test Event, though, the indications are not there that it will necessarily come off.
A fast run is key
In both the men’s and women’s races, the Test Event came down to a running race. On the men’s side, the suited Alex Yee perfectly. Meanwhile, Beth Potter and Cassandre Beaugrand made the most of the situation in the women’s race.
Given the way the races played out, it would be tempting to call Paris a runner’s course.
However, that seems to miss an important part. The running route is much trickier than it may ostensibly seem. This can be seen in the time distribution graphs below.
In both the men’s and women’s run, the rise in density of athletes was never smooth. Instead, the line clearly curved at multiple points as the field broke up.
Similarly to the swim time distributions, there was also a dip in the density of athletes around the middle of the pack.
Paris, then, is not simply a course that rewards fast running. It also emphasises strong running. The combination of the bridges and the cobbled sections help to shift the nature of the course ever so slightly and sap the legs of athletes that little bit more than a standard course.
All things considered, Paris should make for some great racing next summer. Based on the Test Event, a few athletes might look to sharpen their skills in the water. When it comes down it, though, the run looks like it will determine the big prizes.
