With the Olympic Test Event taking place on home soil, Cassandre Beaugrand and the French team will be an incredibly difficult proposition to overcome. At this stage, Beaugrand appears to be the favourite to win the race (57.6% of TriStats voters concurred).
There is obviously a real possibility that she does not win and with that in mind she has shown one prominent weakness this season. Despite her incredible swimming ability she has been susceptible to being caught out by breakaways. At both WTCS Abu Dhabi and WTCS Cagliari, Beaugrand was stranded in the main pack as the medallists came from a group that escaped up the road.
When an athlete is as fast as she is in the water, a combination of bad luck, bad positioning or not paying enough attention could be at play. Yet, even with the breakaway as a risk, Beaugrand will be the favourite.
She is one of the fastest runners in the field. It is hard to say for sure who can be definitively described as the best, although Beaugrand has been the quickest runner at every WTCS race she has contested this year. Given her form on foot, it is hard to picture anyone out-running her.
Beaugrand also won at the European Cup in Quarteira in April. On the surface a Continental Cup result might not appear to be the most relevant in the world. However, it represented her first ever win over the Olympic distance. Shortly after, she finished 4th in Cagliari to claim her highest ever WTCS finish over the Olympic distance.
It therefore appears that Beaugrand is cracking the longer format which can only spell trouble for her rivals.
The French woman is also the form athlete in the world of elite triathlon. Having won WTCS Hamburg and WTCS Sunderland, she will be looking to make it three wins in a row in Paris. What stood out was how easy she made both victories look. In addition, she was at the front of the race out of T1 at both which indicates her breakaway vulnerability may have been patched.
With her focus sharpened by the Test Event, chances are she won’t make any mistakes in the swim which means a third straight win is on the cards.
Her teammates, Emma Lombardi and Leonie Periault, are the obvious threats to a Beaugrand triumph. The French team has made Paris their guiding star and Lombardi and Periault looked in great shape at WTCS Sunderland.
Like Beaugrand, Lombardi can swim at the front of the race; she made the breakaway en route to winning the silver medal in Cagliari. Even if she is not in the breakaway, she has the running speed to earn a medal. Periault is less likely to get into the breakaway, but has the capacity to drop a top run split to vault herself into contention.
As formidable as her teammates are, though, Beaugrand seems like she has the upper hand at this stage.
Looking further afield, Beth Potter won at WTCS Abu Dhabi and WTCS Montreal and will be primed to compete for the win. She is perhaps as good a runner as Beaugrand, although the French woman has out-split her at all three of their mutual appearances this season. Potter has also impressed in the water this year, although she missed the breakaway in Cagliari and the front group in Montreal which makes it a little less certain that she will make any potential breakaway in Paris.
Sophie Coldwell and Flora Duffy are among the likeliest athletes to make any breakaway and could make life difficult for Beaugrand.
Coldwell won at WTCS Yokohama in a truly brilliant performance. If she can hit those highs again then she could take the race away from Beaugrand and neutralise her run. Furthermore Coldwell’s running has been better than ever this year. Even if a breakaway does not stick, she should not be ignored.
Duffy’s abilities are of course well-known. However, after a lengthy injury absence, it does not feel reasonable to predict a win with no recent evidence.
Taylor Spivey and Taylor Knibb can also be expected to make a breakaway, should it materialise. The question is whether they can out-run the likes of Coldwell, Potter and Beaugrand by sufficient margins. Both were beaten by Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal in Yokohama and the young Mexican athlete could be the best-placed to pull off a surprise win.
At this stage, though, it would not be far-fetched to say Beaugrand could win, even if a breakaway gets away.
TriStats Predictions
- Cassandre Beaugrand
- Beth Potter
- Emma Lombardi
- Leonie Periault
- Sophie Coldwell
