Alex Yee is the favourite to win the men’s race at the Paris Olympic Test Event. After winning WTCS Abu Dhabi and WTCS Cagliari, he was the most popular pick for the gold medal among TriStats readers, claiming 42% of the vote.
However, Yee’s status as favourite becomes a little blurrier when taken out of isolation.
On his day, he is simply untouchable. When everything clicks into place and his running is in full flow, there is hardly a better sight in the sport. He does not simply win; he does so gracefully.
Over a straight 10km on foot, there is not really an athlete in the triathlon world that can beat him. Based on personal bests, someone like Morgan Pearson might be the man to get the closest. Pearson, though, is not racing in Paris.
Since the start of 2022, whenever Yee has hopped off the bike in T2 with the lead pack, he has won. That point, however, brings us to why he could lose this week.
In a head-to-head race, the number of men that can beat Yee over the Olympic distance is small. However, framing the question like that neglects the race itself. More specifically, the race can work against Yee to put him at a disadvantage.
Defeats at the French Grand Prix in Metz and then at WTCS Hamburg showed up vulnerabilities on Yee’s side when packs work against him. If anyone can put him on the back foot on the swim and bike, he can be beaten. Matthew Hauser did it to him in Metz. It happened twice at the end of 2022 in Bermuda and Abu Dhabi too.
One of the constants across WTCS Bermuda and WTCS Abu Dhabi was Vincent Luis
After injury, the former world champion will be racing although his condition is somewhat unknown. Perhaps the bigger question is what role will he try to play.
If Luis’ running legs are on song after injury he could go for win, like he did in Bermuda. If his top end running is not where he would like it to be, maybe he will take on a team role to show his tactical versatility to the French selectors. Wherever he is won’t be clear until the run. What is clear, though, is that a breakaway plays to his advantage whether in pursuit of individual glory or team success.
By contrast, a breakaway plays against Yee.
On paper most viewers would back Yee to prevail over Luis right now due to a combination of form and injury. Yet Luis might just be the athlete best placed in the world to bring about a defeat of Yee. Whether the beneficiary is Luis himself or someone else depends who gets into the breakaway with him.
If Luis is not at full fitness over 10km, a number of other athletes could exploit a breakaway.
Hayden Wilde may fancy his chances at being one of them. In a way, it remains to be seen what will be the next trick up Wilde’s sleeve. A masterful late move on the bike at WTCS Hamburg coupled with a flawless transition earned him the lead that carried him to victory.
if he is to come out on top in Paris, the suspicion remains that he will need a similar move to earn him a buffer over Yee. He was so close to taking down Yee in Cagliari but the Brit had his measure.
One of the major talking points all season has been Wilde’s swimming and how he was worked to improve it. If he can get into the front pack in the water, maybe he can work with Luis in a breakaway. Such a combination would be almost impossible to catch and would certainly upset the apple cart.
Moreover, Leo Bergere will be can confident of landing in any front group. He showed exactly what he is capable of at WTCS Abu Dhabi last year. At both WTCS Abu Dhabi and WTCS Sunderland this season he tried to force a breakaway but did not have the space to do so over the Sprint distance.
Given the opportunity, he could shake things up.
As another classy swimmer, Matthew Hauser, will also be in the mix for any breakaway-drive victory. That being said, he has not yet produced the same type of breakaway performances on the world stage as Bergere. Hauser, though, is a younger athlete and has time to drop a breakaway victory.
Pierre Le Corre, the winner of WTCS Sunderland, is another canny racer with the strength to make a breakaway. He was the fastest runner in Sunderland and so could earn another victory should the race unfold for him.
In essence, then, the choice at this point is Yee or the field. If a breakaway can build a lead over Yee going into T2, any of several men could beat him. If no such breakaway materialises, it is hard to see Yee losing.
Given the choice of the field versus Yee, it is tempting to take the field. However, it is a bit of a cop out to say any of over sixty men starting could hypothetically beat one athlete. Even though a breakaway seems like it is in the making, on an individual level Yee is the athlete with the best chance of winning. As saying “someone” will beat him feels like cheating, he is therefore the safest bet for the win.
TriStats Predictions
- Alex Yee
- Hayden Wilde
- Leo Bergere
- Matthew Hauser
- Pierre Le Corre
