Notwithstanding that the Paris Olympic Test Event can count towards an athlete’s WTCS score, Sunderland will be the final race of the regular season in the Series. It will therefore represent the last Sprint event at the WTCS level in 2023.
In the cheat sheets below, we have pulled together the data for the athletes starting at Sprint WTCS races in 2022 and 2023.
For every athlete, you will find their average position out of the water as well as their average time behind the leader in the swim. The same statistics are also available for the run. The best WTCS Sprint distance run split has also been included for each athlete. Although courses rarely match up perfectly, the splits nonetheless offer a simple comparison of the different running levels on offer.
Men
Charles Paquet could be an interesting athlete to watch in Sunderland. In his only Sprint WTCS race of 2022 or 2023 (Montreal in June), he finished 7th. As a result of his Montreal showing, he has one of the best run splits in the field and was only 16 seconds behind the fastest runner. If he can repeat such levels in Sunderland, he could be in with a chance of making the podium.
The clear favourite based on running performances remains Hayden Wilde. The winner of WTCS Hamburg has the best 5km split from 2022 or 2023 in the field and has the best average run performances in terms of both position and time behind the best split.
However, the seemingly eternal question mark over Wilde’s swim remains. It has improved this season, yet instances like his qualifier in Hamburg show that sometimes it can still go wrong for him. Given his superiority on the run, though, Wilde should get away with a 20 second deficit in the swim.
Based on their stats, there are three primary threats to Wilde.
Leo Bergere, Vasco Vilaca and Lasse Lührs have all swum and run similar times in Sprint WTCS races. All three have also medalled over the Sprint distance in the last two years as well.
Bergere and Lührs have given up 12 seconds on average in the water while Vilaca has lost 15 seconds. On the run, Bergere and Lührs have the same deficit again as they have conceded 30 seconds to the fastest runner. Vilaca’s loss to the quickest runner has averaged out at 32 seconds.
If some combination of Bergere, Lührs and Vilaca can escape in a breakaway (alongside some extra assistance on the bike like Kenji Nener or Márk Dévay), they could potentially turn a lead in the water over Wilde into a major advantage. To win, though, they will have to get away from Wilde – which their average swim times suggest they can do – and then stay away on the bike, which is a different challenge entirely.
To hold him off, they will need a lead of at least 30 seconds heading into T2. After all, Bergere will remember well how Wilde shut down his breakaway at WTCS Leeds last year on the run.
If anyone is to beat Wilde, then, it will likely come from one or more of Bergere, Vilaca and Lührs first getting away and then somehow staying away before resisting the charge of Wilde on the run.
Women
Going by the recent numbers from Sprint distance WTCS races, it is hard to look past Cassandre Beaugrand for the win.
She has been the fastest runner, on average, in her Sprint WTCS appearances in 2022 and 2023. She also has one of the best average swim positions in the field. With a win to her name in Leeds last year as well as last time out in Hamburg, she will be the favourite.
Her teammate, Leonie Periault, has the fastest run split of the field in a Sprint distance WTCS race in the last two years. Periault also has the best average run position and average time lost to the fastest runner after Beaugrand. Should she be in contact with the front coming off the bike, a medal is a likely outcome.
Beaugrand and Periault are the only two women to average deficits of less than 30 seconds to the fastest runner. Take a look a little further down the rankings, though, and Julie Derron pops up. Over her two Sprint races in the Series in 2022, she was only 35 seconds behind the quickest runner, on average.
Derron will be making her first WTCS start of 2023 in Sunderland. As a fantastic cyclist, she should be able to make up any time lost in the swim. Based on her previous run splits, she could be a dark horse for a medal.
On the injury front, Alberte Kjaer Pedersen was a late withdrawal from the race with a foot niggle. In addition, Maya Kingma has pulled out due to sickness.
