Among the litany of impressive results at WTCS Hamburg, one string of finishes stood out.
Germany put three athletes into the top-5 of the women’s race as Laura Lindemann won the bronze medal, Annika Koch finished 4th and Marlene Gomez-Göggel took 5th place. It was a remarkable display in front of a roaring home crowd.
In total seven German women made it into the final in Hamburg, putting all of them into the top-30. Likewise, five of the German men’s team made the final and claimed spots in the top-30. Leading the way on the men’s side was Simon Henseleit as he logged a personal best WTCS finish of 14th place.
Virtually the entire German team, then, gave the home crowd something to cheer for.
Their showings opened up a question. Have German athletes historically performed better in Hamburg than elsewhere?
On the surface it would make sense if it were the case. Hamburg offers a sense of familiarity with German surroundings and is among the easiest races to access for the team in terms of travel. Then there is the element of support. Having thousands of spectators, sometimes as many as half a million people over the course of the event, cheering you on can bring about a major boost in performance.
As it happens, the numbers bear out the hypothesis for the most part.
The primary metric to be used here will be the finish of the best performing German athlete at any given WTCS race. Of course, the data will be affected a little by the fact that Germany always puts out its strongest possible team for its home race whereas for several other WTCS events it sends fewer and occasionally lower-ranked athletes.
Using this metric, we can see that the average finish of the best German woman in Hamburg is 5.93 (all numbers are rounded to two decimal places). By contrast, the average position of the highest German female finisher at WTCS races outside of Hamburg is 11.89.
That represents quite a sizeable discrepancy.
The men’s side tells a similar tale. Outside of Hamburg, the average finish of the top German man is 13.81. In Hamburg, that number drops to 8.93.
Based on this, one conclusion is that German athletes do in fact perform better at Hamburg.
To dig a little deeper, we can turn to the data for individual athletes. With that in mind, we have considered some of the prominent German athletes of the WTCS era.
Let’s start with the most recent medallist, Laura Lindemann.
In the wake of her bronze medal in Hamburg, we noted that Lindemann has claimed all five of her WTCS medals in the city. Furthermore she has more top-10 finishes at the race than any other woman.
Unsurprisingly, her average finish is considerably better in Hamburg than elsewhere. At WTCS races outside of Germany, her average finish in 14.93. In Germany, it is 4.63.
It is not for nothing, then, that Hamburg is considered her domain.
However, just because one athlete evidently thrives upon racing at home, that does not make it true for all of their compatriots.
In WTCS races, the 2008 Olympic champion Jan Frodeno performed better away from Hamburg than he did in the city. In Hamburg, his average finish was 15.0; elsewhere is was 12.87.
Similarly, Jonas Schomburg has an average finish outside of Hamburg of 28.24. In Hamburg, it is 28.63. The difference in Schomburg’s performance is a lot less than that of Lindemann and Frodeno. His consistency nonetheless speaks to an interesting case. Sometimes, the location of an event has little to no impact on an athlete.
Across the board, though, we can detect a trend of German athletes achieving higher finishes at the home race, particularly on the women’s side.
Anne Haug averaged a finishing position of 17.71 outside of Hamburg and 13.15 at home. Marlene Gomez-Göggel’s average placing has been 16.75 outside of Hamburg at 15.67 in Germany.
Nina Eim and Lisa Tertsch then fall more into the Schomburg category of consistency, albeit in favour of Hamburg. Eim has averaged a position of 18.0 outside of Hamburg and 17.67 in the city. Tertsch, the bronze medallist in Hamburg in 2022, has finished in an average position of 22.29 outside of Hamburg and 22.0 within.
One important factor to note about Eim and Tertsch is that they are still young athletes. Unlike most other events, Germany has more slots available in Hamburg as hosts. As a result, there has sometimes been a tendency to give young athletes a debut at the race and in many cases said debut does not yield a high finish.
Over the course of their careers, Eim’s and Tertsch’s average Hamburg finish may therefore progress to be more in line with Lindemann, Haug and Gomez-Göggel.
Turning to the men, Tim Hellwig, the winner in Hamburg in 2021, has an average finish of 19.33 outside the city and 17.33 within the city. Justus Nieschlag, a Tokyo Olympian, averaged a finish of 25.5 outside of Germany and 20.8 at WTCS Hamburg.
All things considered, it is fair to assume that any given German athlete will be likely to perform better at WTCS Hamburg over the course of their career. However, there are notable exceptions to this rule as some either perform worse (such as Frodeno) or have no discernible change (like Schomburg).
As a result, while there will be no guarantee of a great German performance at the next iteration of the event, it will be more probable than not that much of the German team steps up and delivers.
