WTCS Hamburg presents a unique challenge in 2023.
Instead of the usual Sprint distance fare, the event will be contested over a multi-round Super Sprint format.
On Friday, there will be two men’s qualifiers and two women’s qualifiers which will run over the Super Sprint distance. The ten best finishers in each qualifier will make it to the final on Saturday. Those that do not qualify will then compete in a repechage (also a Super Sprint) on Friday evening. The ten best finishers in the repechage will then be added to the final.
In total, then, thirty athletes per gender will qualify for the final on Saturday. However, instead of another straight shoot-out over the Super Sprint distance, the final will be an eliminator over three rounds. In the first round, the last ten finishers over the Super Sprint distance will be knocked out. A second Super Sprint will then take place to eliminate the next ten athletes, leaving a final ten for the third round.
Whoever crosses the line first in the final round wins.
Given the configuration of the event is different to every other WTCS event on the 2023 calendar, it is a little harder than usual to prepare relevant cheat sheets. On the one hand, WTCS Montreal from 2022 provides a direct point of comparison. On the other hand, that is only one race and so provides a limited snapshot. Moreover the tactical nature of the racing and repeated rounds from Montreal last year do not make for completely reliable information.
Considering that the final will be an eliminator, an element of endurance also comes into play. An athlete’s 5km run time may therefore hold more utility than a previous mile split.
To provide a little insight for Hamburg, then, the below cheat sheets will focus on Sprint distance WTCS races from 2022 and 2023.
The data is also broken down by qualifiers. This way, it should be a little easier to gauge how each heat could unfold.
Men
Qualifier 1
Márk Dévay is the obvious swim threat. Only a couple of athletes come close to matching his performances in the water. However, the first men’s qualifier is very much a runners heat.
Indeed, qualifier 1 is practically bursting with fast runners. Manoel Messias, Jelle Geens, Matthew McElroy, Bence Bicsák, Jacob Birtwhistle and Jawad Abdelmoula are all incredible in the third discipline. It is no surprise to see that each of them have had a higher average run position than average swim position in Sprint races in 2022 and 2023.
When it comes to running performances, Alex Yee is the standout in the heat. Across his four WTCS Sprint races, he has been the best runner in the field, on average. By contrast, he has earned an average swim position of 25.5.
In total, only ten of the starters in qualifier 1 have recorded a better average swimming position than average running position.
A case could be made that Tyler Mislawchuk may technically fall into the swimmer category nowadays after leading the field into T1 at the Huatulco World Cup. At heart, though, the Canadian is probably still more of a runner.
Vasco Vilaca and David Castro Fajardo also offer interesting cases. Both have good swims (as shown by their average positions and time conceded to the leader) but their run is what sets them apart.
A double Lasse threat – Lührs and Priester – will be posed. Running is a strength for both men and they add to the depth of the field. Throw in the likes of Morgan Pearson and Vetle Bergsvik Thorn and qualifier 1 has the hallmarks of being settled on the run rather than in the swim or bike.
Qualifier 2
The second men’s qualifier is a little different. Whereas the first heat is over-loaded with fast runners, qualifier 2 is a slightly more swim-heavy.
The likes of Dylan McCullough, Csongor Lehmann, Miguel Hidalgo, Marten Van Riel, Henri Schoeman, Tim Hellwig and Nicolò Strada are all strong swimmers and can be counted to push the pace. While Márk Dévay is a near-certainty to lead the swim in qualifier 1, the second heat is considerably more open. It is possible to see a group of around six to eight men all fight one another to exit the water first. In such a scenario, the field could fragment to a degree.
Matthew Hauser is among the best runners in the heat. However, across his four WTCS Sprint events in 2022 and 2023 he has been practically as high-ranked in the swim as in the run. Moreover, on average, he has been only 7 seconds behind the fastest swimmer but 27 seconds off the quickest runner.
Of course, the 5km run is longer than the 750m swim so it is not an entirely fair comparison. The important point, though, is that he is another talented swimmer that will add further firepower to an already deep line-up.
Hayden Wilde will be a curious case. He has improved his swimming from 2022 and in his last WTCS appearance recorded a good split in Cagliari.
Over the Sprint distance, though, his numbers do not yet make for pretty reading. He has, on average, emerged in 42nd place and given up 28 seconds to the fastest swimmer. In Hamburg, that could equate to a 10-15 second deficit.
Wilde is good enough to make up such time on the bike. Furthermore he can likely be expected to swim above his past data based on his Olympic distance showings. Still, there is a risk of him being isolated out of T1 by a fast swim.
Any time lost in the water, even as little as 10 seconds, could be quickly punished.
In contrast to qualifier 1, then, much of the damage could be done in the first discipline. There is plenty of running talent in the second heat, but it is possible to see the field being stretched before the athletes even make it to T2.
Women
Qualifier 1
The first women’s qualifier is similar to the second men’s qualifier. That is to say, the swim could play a major role in shaping who qualifies for the final.
With Vittoria Lopes, Jolien Vermeylen, Zsanett Bragmayer, Lizeth Rueda Santos and Djenyfer Arnold gathered in the same heat, there is a lot of firepower in the swim.
Lopes has been among the best swimmers in the WTCS, as her average position of 2.2 from 2022 and 2023 Sprint races demonstrates.
One athlete that will also likely play a big role in a potential swim-driven breakaway will be Taylor Spivey. The American has been better in terms of position and time behind the leader in the swim compared to the run. In the water, she has emerged in an average position of 6.2 and 7 seconds behind the leader. In the run, her average position has been 12.2 and she has lost 41 seconds to the best split.
Until WTCS Montreal, Spivey had made every breakaway in the Series in 2023. With her swimming stats, it is not hard to see why.
Beth Potter is also a strong swimmer and could feature prominently at the front. As a favourite to win the whole event, getting into a break would enable Potter to ease up a little more on the run and save her legs for the final. That factor could play into her tactics.
More than perhaps any other qualifier, then, the first women’s heat seems primed for a breakaway.
Should that happen, Solveig Løvseth will be one of the most interesting athletes to watch. She struggled in the water at the Tiszaujvaros World Cup. More than anyone in the qualifier, though, she has the power on the bike to bridge to any potential breakaway.
If a break occurs, Løvseth could either bring the chase up to it or try to make the jump alone. Staying with Løvseth, then, could be the key to several athletes nipping into the final.
Given the quality of swimmers in the qualifier and the power of Løvseth on the bike, some of the faster runners like Verena Steinhauser and Alberte Kjaer Pedersen could get caught out if they are not careful.
Qualifier 2
The second women’s qualifier looks more like the “runners” heat. Obviously that is a little odd to say given qualifier 1 contains Beth Potter and Alberte Kjaer Pedersen.
Still, with the likes of Jeanne Lehair, Tilda Månsson, Gwen Jorgensen, Rachel Klamer and Emy Legault in the heat, the second women’s qualifier has several women more renowned for their run than their swim. In addition, the likes of Annika Koch, Luisa Baptista and Ekaterina Shabalina add to the high overall level of running ability.
Cassandre Beaugrand has been the best swimmer of the qualifier in terms of position out of the water. Summer Rappaport, meanwhile, has been the best in terms of time behind the swim leader. However, neither will have a huge incentive to try to force a breakaway.
Beaugrand has been the fastest runner in both of her Sprint appearances and will be confident of securing her place in the final without fully exerting herself. After the way her run fired at WTCS Montreal, Rappaport will also be in a position to conserve energy on the swim and bike.
The German trio of Laura Lindemann, Lena Meißner and Marlene Gomez-Göggel are all good swimmers and will likely set a testing pace. Following a recent injury that limited her running, a break might be Meißner’s best shot of making the final.
However, the second qualifier has half as many women that have averaged top-10 swims than the first qualifier. It therefore does not quite have the same concentration of speed that could add up to a breakaway. With that in mind, it will likely come down to a running race to determine the automatic qualifiers for the final.
