In light of the news that Hayden Wilde and Alex Yee have dropped out of WTCS Montreal, the race is suddenly wide open. With the world champion, Leo Bergere, also absent, there are no returning medallists from the 2022 iteration of the event.
The Series leader – and one of the most consistent athletes this season – Dorian Coninx will also be absent. Bergere and Coninx also medalled in Montreal in 2021 (with the latter winning the event) and so would have been among the favourites this time aroud.
The net effect of the absence of Yee, Wilde, Bergere and Coninx is to make Montreal the most open WTCS race of the year. Factoring in the absence of Vincent Luis too, there are no WTCS race winners from 2023 or 2022 on the start list.
For those racing, then, it will be a perfect opportunity to snatch a win.
The obvious candidate to do so is Vasco Vilaca. The young Portuguese athlete has been a revelation this year. With medals from both Abu Dhabi and Yokohama, he will be looking to claim his first ever win in the Series. The Sprint distance should play into his hands, even if he has proven himself over the Olympic distance this season.
He did not have the best day in Cagliari as he only managed 8th and lost his leadership of the Series. However, he battled with sickness after Yokohama which may have contributed to his (still good) performance.
One man that will pose a big threat to Vilaca’s hopes is Matthew Hauser.
The Australian pipped Vilaca to the silver medal in a sprint finish in Yokohama. As a medallist in Hamburg last year, he has also shown an affinity for the shorter distance. Hauser might just have the best final kick of any man in the field. The problem for Vilaca is that Hauser is also a great swimmer. While Vilaca will want to distance his rival and take the sting out of his finish, it might be hard to do so.
One thing Vilaca does have in his favour is that he has been a little more consistent this year. Hauser opened his campaign with an 18th place in Abu Dhabi; by comparison, Vilaca took the silver medal.
His consistency makes it a little easier to expect Vilaca to hit his stride in Canada, although the difference between the two is marginal.
Another medallist from this season will stand in their way. Manoel Messias won a bronze medal in Abu Dhabi and has the running ability to trouble anyone.
He also possesses a great head for racing, as shown by his sneak attack on the bike on his way to victory at last year’s Valencia World Cup. Vilaca has already beaten him over 5km this year, which saw Messias earn bronze in Abu Dhabi. Moreover he is possibly not as strong in the water as Hauser or Vilaca.
Yet Messias is an athlete on the rise.
When it comes to form, no one will arrive in Montreal with a hand as hot as David Castro Fajardo. Castro is on fire after wins at the European Championships and the Huatulco World Cup. Like the names listed so far, Castro is equipped with a great run. One thing that sets him apart, though, is his maturity.
Call it what you want, but Castro has a way of smelling out victories and seizing his chance. Wins in Viña del Mar and Wanaka lend weight to the idea that he has a sense for how to win races. As talented as Vilaca, Hauser and Messias are, if Castro is close by on the run, he seems to be the likeliest to keep a cool head and select the right tactical approach.
The man Castro beat in Huatulco, Tyler Mislawchuk, will also be a challenger.
Mislawchuk’s silver medal in Mexico was impressive in its own right. The fact that he led out the swim should give his rivals pause for thought. Already a fantastic runner, Mislawchuk should be able to go toe-to-toe with anyone in Montreal.
As a bronze medallist from the race in 2019, he has the experience of performing well. In addition he will have plenty of home support to cheer him on. At the top level, when the athletes’ are so balanced physically, these kind of intangible attributes can pay large dividends.
Another of Castro’s vanquished rivals will be in the mix. Jonathan Brownlee won the silver medal at the European Championships after having no answer to Castro’s sprint. However, he also finished 34th in Cagliari. The question around the multi-medallist is which version of him will show up in Canada?
He finished 4th at his only prior appearance in Montreal back in 2017 so has had some success at the course. At this point, though, it is hard to gauge whether he will contend for a medal or miss the top-20.
Jelle Geens has been quiet this year after finishing his 2022 with a bang. The absence of Yee and Wilde open the race up for someone with his running speed. His Belgian teammate, Marten Van Riel, could also make a statement now that he has two races under his belt after injury.
Finally we come to Kristian Blummenfelt. The Olympic champion has not medalled since his WTCS return and suffered with illness problems earlier in the year. Furthermore the Sprint distance likely won’t suit him as well as it will for some of his rivals. Still, it feels like things will click for him at some point. Everyone is an outsider for a medal until they aren’t.
He medalled at the Bergen World Cup over the Sprint distance last year and the man that beat him, Coninx, is absent. If he doesn’t get caught out in the swim like in Cagliari, he could be in the mix.
TriStats Predictions
- Vasco Vilaca
- Matthew Hauser
- David Castro Fajardo
- Manoel Messias
- Tyler Mislawchuk
