WTCS Cagliari brought two fascinating races as Alex Yee and Georgia Taylor-Brown repeated their 2022 victories at the venue. Here we dive into the exact details of the race and the numbers behind the results reveal plenty.
Swim
Men
The most obvious takeaway from the men’s swim distribution is how the peak concentration of athletes exited the water around 15 seconds after the fastest swimmer.
As a result a large front pack was able to coalesce during the first bike lap. Although there was a split in the field in Cagliari, it cannot truly be characterised as a front pack breakaway. This is largely due to the fact that the front group was the biggest on the road, as shown by the below graphic.
What this means is that the pace in the swim is potentially not high enough insofar that too many of the men are able to keep up with the best swimmer. With the pack so concentrated, it will be close to impossible for any breakaway to form which will result in more run-dominated races.
The swim may therefore be the biggest opportunity to change up the character of the race in the men’s Series.
Women
In contrast to the men’s field, the peak of the concentration of athletes in the women’s swim emerged almost 40 seconds after the quickest swimmer.
You can see that there is a slight dip in the concentration around 10 seconds after the fastest swimmer. That dip is hugely important. The top-6 swimmers (the athletes that comprised the six woman breakaway) all exited the water within 10 seconds of Vittoria Lopes, the quickest swimmer. Then there was a 6 second gap until Zsanett Bragmayer (7th out of the water) emerged. That gap ultimately proved to be the threshold for making the front pack.
Whereas the 15 second mark represented the peak of the men’s concentration in the water, in the women’s racing it was the tipping point for the chase pack.
Once that moment passed, all bar six women had essentially lost their chance of medalling; indeed, no woman has medalled in the Series this season without making the breakaway.
Bike
Men
In the above graph you can see how the front pack (the Yee-Wilde group) battled to hold off the chase pack (the Blummenfelt group). This represented a change from WTCS Yokohama in which the Blummenfelt chase succeeded.
The front group certainly had a size advantage (as seen earlier in the article) as they were the biggest pack on the road. One other aspect that stood in their favour compared to Yokohama was the dry course. The rain in Japan certainly made it a little trickier for the larger front pack to navigate the roads.
Women
The third pack on the road (the Casillas-Michel group) had a surprising surge on the seventh lap of the bike. For the rest of the course, though, they conceded time on almost every lap to the packs ahead.
The riders in the lead group (as characterised by Georgia Taylor-Brown) were very consistent; between lap 2 and lap 7 they hardly deviated from their lap times. Towards the end, the efforts began to show as the leaders lost a bit of their momentum. It could also have been the case that they knew their lead was secure and could afford to turn their attention to the run.
The final three laps, though, really look like a missed opportunity by the chase group (represented by Potter and Zaferes). Had they been able to match their times from the middle of the bike, they would have been able to eat into the deficit. For Cassandre Beaugrand, as an example, not making the most of the last two laps and leaving at least 10 seconds on the road would ultimately prove the difference between her taking bronze and her eventual 4th place.
Given that the third group were able to speed up on lap 10, it is clear that the second group missed an opportunity and it highlights the importance of finishing the bike hard.
Run
Men
Hayden Wilde did not have quite as good a T2 as some of other men in the lead group. He consequently logged the fastest first lap as he ran through to recoup the precious seconds lost to the field.
Alex Yee was in the same boat as Wilde having emerged with the New Zealander at the same time from T2. He proceeded to run identical lap times to Wilde for the first three laps. Yee clearly ran a little faster on lap 4 (he is not highlighted but you can see his line below the green of Wilde) and that was the moment of separation. For almost the entire run, though, there was nothing between the pair.
The run also showed two contrasting styles. On the one hand, Schomburg utilised a fast first lap to get ahead and then try to hold on. In doing so he earned his best ever WTCS finish. On the other hand, Coninx was a little more cautious on his first lap and thereafter was incredibly consistent.
Women
Cassandre Beaugrand was the star of the women’s run as she was the fastest woman for virtually every step of the way.
Meanwhile there was a slight cat-and-mouse game between Emma Lombardi and Georgia Taylor-Brown. While Lombardi had the better start, Taylor-Brown was quicker on the second lap. The pair then held together on the third lap but the Brit had too much for the French woman on the final lap.
Beth Potter and Jeanne Lehair had great runs and were both very close to matching Beaugrand throughout.
Rosa Tapia Maria Vidal, however, was not able to match her heroics from WTCS Yokohama and leaked time across each lap of the run.
